I don’t intend to be a frequent diarist or commenter, I will never use the word "Breaking" in a title, I will not comment on polls, Rush, or Fox and I will militate against providing links – for factual verification, start with Wikipedia, work outbound from there. These are simply my thoughts; do with them as you will.
I've been paying attention to politics since 1968. Now, 40 years later, the same kind of fragmentation that cost Democrats the White House then, and set the stage for the now-failing radicalized Republican dominance, is tearing apart the GOP along fault lines that will be visible for decades. Make no mistake, The Reverend Mike Huckabee is to the Republicans now as George Wallace was to the Democrats then -- even worse, in fact, since Huckabee won't bolt, it's all intra-party. Indeed, the GOP has to keep him in to have any hope of Religious Right turnout and support.
Two facts from yesterday, more than anything else, tend to show how bad it is for the Republicans. First, the Democratic turnout was more than twice the Republicans in a state where their numbers overall are fairly even. Second, had yesterday been a run-off election, like the Louisiana gubernatorial, no Republican would have made the cut, with Huckabee finishing a distant fourth based on total votes cast.
There is no way Huck can win the GOP nomination outright much less the general, but he would represent the highest ascendancy of the Religious Right. He runs on the cheap with little organization so what should be weaknesses actually make him resilient. He's in it to stay, and will have much sway at the convention -- so much, that he'll be on the ticket after the establishment-approved candidate, or the GOP will effectively surrender the "values voter" advantage it has claimed for so long.
By proving that he can siphon so many votes and so much attention, however, he is putting a body block against any other candidate winning the nomination outright as well. As long as Ron Paul stays in, he's also siphoning a small number of GOP voters away from a more traditional, in GOP eyes, credible candidate. McCain and Thompson are pulling from the same pool. Common sense says Rudy is done but as he sees this fragmentation, he might just stay and hope for a brokered convention - he's that stubborn/oblivious/egotistical. It all contributes to keeping the GOP rank-and-file from coalescing behind Romney as the "best seeming" though deeply flawed candidate.
The GOP field is self-destructive by its very nature. The Republican convention will be a mess, and don't rule out an "X Factor" coming in to "save" the nomination like Gingrich. It may be much like the 1968 Democrats in Chicago but without a heavy-handed police force; quite the opposite, in fact. The Minneapolis/St. Paul police chief is already on record as supportive of the First Amendment's exercise in his jurisdiction this summer. The GOP is well on the way to its summer of self-immolation.
Meanwhile the Democrats are winnowing down to a clear top-three. Party faithful are splitting among candidates who have differences but are not in any way mutually exclusive so unity is a foregone conclusion. This will keep up interest, visibility, fund raising, grass roots support, and enthusiasm. Before the convention, one of the three will emerge and all Democratic voters will find him/her acceptable. Get-out-the-vote will work for Democrats and stagnate for Republicans.
Democrats take the White House this year when the Republicans' embrace of the extreme right-wing, primarily in the form of the South and religious zealotry, comes back to haunt the GOP at last. But beware: There is one on the horizon who could transcend the Republican fractures in 2012 or even 2016: Florida Govenor Charlie Crist. He's a decent man, a fine executive of a large, key state and aggravates fellow state Republicans by treating bi-partisanship seriously. That's the GOP's next Southern Strategy -- if they can hold on that long.