Rasmussen markets still show Hillary Clinton as the leader in the Democratic Primary with a 51.1% liklihood of her winning the nomination. Here is some information about Rasmussen markets from the website:
RasmussenMarkets.com is a "prediction market" or "futures market" that harnesses competitive passions in a way that becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. This page summarizes results for key upcoming events.
However, there is still a catch. Rasmussen also predicts that Obama will win in New Hampshire. Here is the current forcast:
Obama 68%
Clinton 38%
Edwards 1.5%
BTW, John Edwards' chance to win the nomination is now 2.7%.
But if you don't trust the Rasmussen Markets data, consider the upcoming primary schedule. [after the jump]
January 8th - New Hampshire
With the momentum he's gained in Iowa, and the liklihood that independents and Republicans will vote in the NH Democratic primary, Obama has an excellent chance to win this one. Hillary needs to stay close, and probably will. She has a strong base of supporters who aren't going to jump ship yet. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if she managed to pull out a victory. But I expect Obama to win by a small margin.
January 15th - Michigan
Hillary has got this one in the bag. Michigan tried to move its primary ahead of Iowa and got smacked by the Democratic Party. So I expect that the Obamentum will not matter in the state. Besides Rasmussen gives Hillary an 86.2% chance of winning the state. BTW, Michigan has almost twice as many delegates as Iowa and New Hampshire combined.
January 19th - Nevada
Hillary has led in Nevada from the beginning. The latest American Research Group poll has Clinton leading Obama in Nevada 45% to 18%. So I fully expect her to win there.
January 16th - South Carolina
50% of Democratic voters are African American. This is Obama's race to lose.
January 29th - Florida
With the large number of senior citizen voters, I expect Hillary to win easily, which will give her the momentum into Super Tuesday.
February 5th - Super Tuesday
Hillary takes New York and California. Obama wins Illinois easily. The results are split in the remaining states.
This is going to be the closest primary in years.