Well, here we are again. Iowa is done. Obama won it decisively. Tomorrow he'll be up in the NH polls, and will very likely become the nominee. So, I need to start getting used to the idea that he will be just that.
I'm not going to bash any candidates, since I hate the partisan candidate hysterics around here. The "my candidate walks on water while yours is the devil incarnate" comments drove me nuts (which is why I stayed away for a month). All the Democratic candidates are fine people, and will make good presidents.
Still, I have some reservations when thinking about Obama.
As you may know, I supported Hillary Clinton. And I still do, but it doesn't look like she'll win. I've seen this movie before, and the bandwagon effect of an Iowa win is almost impossible to stop.
I came to support Clinton because I felt that the crowd here treated her unfairly to the point where the double standard was beyond the ridiculous. So I started defending her, and came to like her as a candidate. I'm a fairly cynical observer as politics, and as such I liked her fairly dry message of experience and hard work. While I realize that a politician needs slogans to win, I liked it that the Clinton campaign's message was "I have the experience and I can do the job". Her voting record and past actions, while certainly not perfect, showed me that this is a claim that is likely true.
The fact that her message is one of competence, which is not considered "exciting" or "inspiring" is, in hindsight, probably a part of why she didn't do better in Iowa. As it turns out, droves of new, young voters were inspired by Obama, and carried him to victory. Which made me feel like an old cynic.
Here's my problem. When I see Obama, I see an intelligent man, and a gifted speaker. He also has a good voting record in the senate (about equal to Clinton's). So far, so good, and that's certainly good enough for him to deserve anyone's support when going against a Republican. His program seems to be mainstream Democratic, although he seems to be a little bit to the right of Edwards and Clinton on a few things (healthcare, the environment). His willingness to get "Sister Souljah" on unabashed liberals also worries me. However, this could all be just election rhetoric. But then we get to the part where I am obviously out of touch: his message of change and hope. Everytime he talks about "change" my kneejerk reflex is to ask questions. What change is he talking about, exactly? How is that different (and better) compared to the other candidates? How is he going to bring about that change if elected? When I see him giving a (very well delivered) speech with a sign that says "change we can believe in", I think: what does that mean?
Since I'm a computer nerd, here's an analogy: to me, Obama is an OS X application with a flashy installation procedure, and a package that promises new and exciting things (and to be compatible with the Windows version for bipartisan appeal). But I don't care about such things. I want more assurances about how the program will perform when it runs.
But, back to what I was going on about.
Obama talks about reducing the influence of lobbyists. A fine goal. However, his rhetoric at that point seems to be a toned down version of what Edwards is saying. He talks about having a less confrontational, less partisan, style of politics. Sure, that would be great, but how would that translate into achieving goals as a president? And as far as change enacted through program points, well, I don't know. Like I said, he seems to be a little more centrist on a few issues, so that is less of a change than someone like Edwards would offer.
Perhaps I am already turning into a grumpy old man at 38. But I like substance, and "change" talk doesn't do it for me. So I'm left with a mainstream Democrat who will be a fine president, but who I can't see changing more than the others.
At the end of the day, I should probably be happy that we will have a nominee who can obviously inspire people. And I hope he can continue to do so, for a decisive Democratic victory. If it's all just a matter of style and appearances, well hey, elections are largely decided on style, and it's better to have someone who has it on our side than on the Republican side. I should also be happy that Obama appears to be bringing young voters. And I am. This is great for the Democratic party, and having a new generation involved with politics is great.
And perhaps I just need a little more time and will learn to love him. Who knows.