I participate in a bi-partisan on-line forum, and when I logged in on Friday I was stunned to find many of the most vocal conservative/Republican posters discussing whether or not to change registration in order to vote in upcoming Democratic primaries. Several started out by stating that they would do so primarily to make sure that Hillary was not the nominee, and that they would subsequently change their registration. However, when they were pushed on the question, most of them acknowledged that they could see themselves voting for Obama. Many listed 2-3 of the leading Republican candidates who they would vote against if Obama were the Democratic nominee. From the comments of the conservatives, I believe I can see a powerful underground force that will propel Obama to a big win in the General Election if he can win the Democratic nomination.
In my experience, many of George Bush's supporters are people of integrity who happen to have a different view of the world. If George Bush's vision of the world were correct (good guys vs. evil foe, must defeat through firmness of purpose and force of arms, etc.), then I can even see where they have felt his actions are justified and right. They really and truly felt proud to have Bush as President for at least part of his tenure. The problem is, as some of us have known all along, Bush's vision is wrong. The world is not like what he says it is, and the actions his administration has taken have created great harm. What has happened over the past two years is that Republicans and Independents who supported Bush fully, with their whole heart, are beginning to see that they were betrayed.
None of them want to admit it.
What I hear in the support for Obama by Republicans and right-leaning Independents is a desire to cast a vote that is clean, that attempts to redeem themselves from the acts that have been committed in their name by the Bush Administration. They want to show that they are not brutal bigots, and Obama offers a way to demonstrate this (both because of his race and his heritage - I even get a sense that by voting for someone with a middle name of Hussein they can prove to themselves they are different from the hard-core Bush supporters). It also helps that Obama has not emphasized the Blue/Red division that would force those Independents and Republicans to confront their latent shame for supporting Bush.
Is this fair? or the best way to pick a President? I am not sure that matters. Part of me wants Bush supporters to confront the morality of their actions, to have to tell their children and grandchildren that hundred of thousands of people were unnecessarily killed because as voters they collectively supported a Republican Party. And if Obama were to win, I am curious to see how those who may have committed real crimes will be brought to justice. But regardless of my feelings, the main point of this diary is to track what is going on inside the heads of Independents and Republicans. And from my read, because of both the man and the times, there is a real possibility that an Obama Presidency would be transformational