The Minnesota Senate (MN-SEN) race has had some surprises. Plenty of the predictable as well. Norm Coleman has been all over the place. Not literally, but figuratively -- Some of the most amazing things came out of his mouth last year. I guess that's not that surprising. Al Franken shocked everybody by outraising Norm in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Q4 numbers are not due until the end of January, but you never know, we might be surprised again. The DFL candidates have been all over the place, too ... literally not figuratively. They've been criss-crossing the state holding events, attending potlucks and listening. I've been following this race closely not just for the Norm Coleman Weasel Meter, but because there are three good DFL candidates.
The race for the DFL nomination is not surprising. Al Franken is the frontrunner, Mike Ciresi is trying to play to what Al is not and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is playing catch-up having entered the race last.
-- cross-posted from mnblue.com, home of the Norm Coleman Weasel Meter --
- Caveat Lector: While I am biased about this race (I have endorsed Al Franken) you can read why here and I will say that I would be happy with Al, Mike or Jack as the candidate to face Norm. I am only strongly biased against Jim Cohen ... I don't think he's relevant.
The Short History of the DFL race ... So Far
Al surprised absolutely nobody by entering the race the day after Valentine's Day. He'd been talking about it and even moved his Air America radio show to Minneapolis. He'd been using his radio show as a bully pulpit. Plus, he'd been actively fundraising and working for midwestern Dems. He immediately began building his campaign hiring away the DFL's best and brightest.
Mike Ciresi joined the race in May. He'd hadn't done much politically since his 2000 Senate primary race loss to Mark Dayton. He touts the cases he has won against the likes of Big Tobacco, for women damaged by the Dalkon Shield and for the residents of Bhopal Disaster as well as his business experience running one of Minnesota's largest law firms. He's MN's greatest attorney, probably ever. His fundraising has been respectable, but dwarfed by Al's effort.
In June, rumors began circulating that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer might join the race. By July, Al had signed up 5,000 volunteers and raised close to $3 million, Mike had raised a respectable $750,000 in half a quarter with Jack still only a rumor. By August the rumors were so strong that Jack was included in a debate at Augsburg. He officially joined the race in late September, 7 months after the race had officially begun with Al's announcement. By this time Al had hired an even larger staff and had been building a strong grassroots campaign.
In the 20 days ending Q3 (Oct 1), Jack had obtained $150,000 in pledged contributions. He felt this indicated that progressives were willing to put their money where their mouths were and wanted him carrying the progressive standard. Jack's $150K in pledges stood against Al's $5M banked.
2007 in Norm-speakTM
When I mentioned that the most amazing things had come out of Norm's mouth, here's the best of them.
Coleman said all forms of alternative energy are needed and that energy is a big part of the Farm Bill.
"We need more oil refineries, nuclear plants and everything else that works. I believe in American ingenuity," Coleman said.
(New Ulm Journal)
Norm flip flopped on arbitrary timelines. His plan to end the Iraq War is conceived around an arbitrary timeline, the 2008 election. This is despite his frequent previous claims to be opposed to arbitrary timelines:
"The safety of our troops – and providing them with the tools they need for success – remains my number one concern. Setting an arbitrary timeline for withdrawal does not protect our troops--but does embolden our enemies.
(Norm's 3/29/07 press release)
Norm asked Gen. Petraeus for a long-term plan that would include timelines for U.S. troop withdrawals.
"Americans want to see a light at the end of the tunnel," said the Minnesota Republican, who is walking a tightrope to the 2008 election. "We need to see some plan out there."
(Minneapolis Star Tribune)
(9/17/07) War protesters talked to Norm outside his house. He trotted out his usual Iraq talking points like the surge is working, Gen. Petraeus is great. He claimed to not be hearing from people who are opposed to the war and he said he's ignoring the polls that indicate Minnesotans want the war over. Here's my transcript of a choice bit of incoherence:
"I disagree uh with the President ... uh ... I, I, I, I agree with him and I disagree with him ... [laughter from crowd] ... I disagree with him on disaster assistance, I disagree with him on [mumbles incoherently] funding, I disagree with I that things I that again I have to tell ya I don't call him up and ask him what he thinks, I try to represent you. And on this issues, and on this issue I was uh by the way I was one of the ones I didn't think the surge would work and by the way ..."
"And you were right," A woman says from the crowd. Most everybody in the crowd laughs.
Watch the video from the protest here.
"Let me also say that the last four years have been riddled with bad predictions and broken promises in Iraq - and I understand that."
(MPR)
This fall, Norm had an epiphany on healthcare (spurred by polling). He said the following in late November.
"There are aspects to Hillary Clinton's health plan that I agree with."
On transportation:
Northstar rail isn't the answer to post-collapse congestion, Coleman replied. "But if we can move more traffic to transit, it'll be a net benefit to the whole system."
(Norm incoherent on transit)
Jack's Question: Who is most progressive?
The central question that Jack wants to raise is who is the most progressive candidate. Jack has the longest history and the strongest street cred. As an activist generally and as a Professor in Peace & Justice Studies at St. Thomas University, he's been at this for a long time. He's always opposed the war whereas Al changed his mind. He was at the protests when Mike was a private citizen.
It seems to me that Jack's argument is you cannot trust Al because of his poor judgment on Iraq and Mike is a more traditiona liberal. If you want someone who is pure, you want Jack.
You all will have to decide how important this is. I am not a fan of picking the most viable candidate, though I believe many are ruling Jack out because of how far ahead Al and Mike are. Ask yourself how important purity is.
Energy, Buzz & Momentum
If you are still considering which DFL candidate to back, try attending an event for each of the candidates. The energy at a Franken event is amazing. They're packed, first of all. Secondly, Al hits all the points that matter most to we progressives. Jack hits all the right points though the crowds are smaller. I'm sure Mike is no slouch. I plan on hitting campaign events for all three to see how they're doing.
Polling
The polling has been surprising, but not how you think.
In February, Norm led Al by 22%. Not surprising. In July, unknown DFL candidate Jim Cohen had 37% to Norm's 50% in a head-to-head contest. That is surprising. 37% of Minnesotans would consider voting for someone they'd never heard of and Norm was that weak. Al had improved to a 7% difference (49%-42%) which didn't surprise me all that much. Another July poll had Norm's approval rating at 43% with his disapproval at 48%.
By September, both Al and Mike were within the margin of error against Norm. What surprised me about the polling is that Mike was doing as well against Norm as Al, though Al had much better name recognition. I take Al and Mike's strength and Norm's weakness to mean that Minnesotans would consider someone else.
But I misunderestimated the strength of Norm-speakTM. Norm has been holding meetings outside of the metro area starting during the August recess and continuing through November. His aides must have been reading the polling data, as he talked primarily about healthcare, but would also answer questions about Iraq. I documented numerous lies that he told about what he's done and on the issues. Furthermore, Norm got some favorable stenographing by the understaffed Minneapolis Star Tribune among other papers. His lies and spin were transcribed as provided and this must have helped as his approval ratings shot up into the lower fifties and his disapproval sank to 37%.
With 11 months left to election day, these polls will move plenty.
Issue Differences among the DFLers
The only issues on which the three DFLers differ are healthcare and global warming as far as I can tell.
Jack raises the issue that Al was wrong on Iraq then changed his mind and that Mike never backed up his opposition with any action. You're going to have to decide this one for yourselves. At this point, they all want the US out of Iraq.
The difference on the environment is minor. They all understand that addressing global warming is paramount and that this is also an opportunity to establish green manufacturing and green tech in MN. They differ in that Jack is the only one to have signed on to the 1 Sky solutions and Al is willing to consider nuclear power as one of the many options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I should add that Al has said that nuclear power ranks lower than pollution reduction efforts, renewable energy, conservation and carbon taxes, but Jack is not willing to consider it.
On healthcare there are substantial differences. Both Al and Jack get it. They understand that the health insurance industry, HMOs and the pharmaceutical industy are the bad guys making profits by denying people medical care. Jack wants a single payer system. Al is amenable but warns that it's not politically possible. Al wants universal coverage with single payer for all kids. Mike understands that its a huge burden on the economy as do Al and Jack. But Mike wants to include the insurance industry, HMOs and pharmaceutical companies in the solution to the problem they are causing.
Looking forward to 2008
Norm is going to be performing the most incredible political gymnastics this year. Triple obfuscating backflips and quadruple-twist flip flops. On the one hand, he'll continue to support the war and President Bush as he always has. On the other hand, he must somehow run away from and against his own record on the important issues. One way is to point out his excellent constituent services and employ Norm-speakTM at every opportunity.
You can count on the Star Tribune, Pioneer Press, Rochester Post Bulletin, Mankato Free Press, St. Cloud Times, Duluth Herald Tribune and all the others to transcribe anything Norm says exactly as he submits it. Occasionally, one of the non-metro papers will critically analyze what Norm says, but not the Strib and PiPress. They'll barely cover the races although I wish it were different. Both have slashed their staffs too much. But that's why I blog.
You, dear readers, need to turn out to your caucuses. If you're not sure how it works, read Grace Kelly's Precinct Caucus Guide for instructions, tips and hints. Some of you will attend the state DFL convention in Rochester and help decide who is going to be the endorsed candidate. I look forward to seeing you there, I'll be wearing an Al Franken shirt. At this point, all three have said they'll abide by the endorsement making attending your caucus paramount.
The Republican National Convention will shut down St. Paul in August. Norm will get a small boost from it, but hopes for a boost that will last until November. I predict it won't be a strong as he'd like nor as long-lasting. The Republican brand is in the toilet. The Crisis Du Jour engulfing the Bush Administration and the Republicans will not help. Wouldn't impeachment hearings this summer be great?
Voter turnout in Minneapolis and St. Paul is going to be massive. Plans are being made to maximize it. The Dems from Presidential to Senatorial to 61B State House candidate Jeff Hayden are going to all need it. The Iron Range will go strongly DFL. Rochester and the western suburbs will continue to trend blue.