Despite what I think was an excellent performance in last night's last Democratic debate in New Hampshire, I'm inclined to think that Tuesday will be John Edwards' last hurrah in the 2008 campaign. Unfair? Probably. The result of corporate media's efforts to ignore him rather than his message? Possibly. But that's not the point I'd like to examine.
The four remaining viable Democratic candidates (if one considers Bill Richardson "viable") represent a split between "fighters" (Edwards and Clinton) and "uniters" (Obama and Richardson)on one hand, and "change agents" (Obama and Edwards) versus "experienced" candidates (Clinton and Richardson.)
The key to winning the nomination lies in where Edwards' (and to a much lesser extent the Richardson, Biden, and Dodd) supporters move when it comes down to a Clinton versus Obama contest in the SuperTuesday primaries.
It looks as if Clinton can pick up most of the Richardson, Biden, and Dodd supporters. But unless I misread the sentiments of Edwards' supporters, they'll move en masse to Obama.
Of course, the Edwards partisans are likely to argue that Clinton will crash and burn before Edwards drops out. That's obviously the Edwards campaign's strategy. But that scenario depends, I think, on a second place finish in New Hampshire. And without a sea change in voter preferences in the next 48 hours, I don't see it happening.
Clinton shouldn't be underestimated. And not just because she retains the support of the Democratic party establishment. But combining the Edwards and Obama coalitions, I believe, will put the Illinois Senator over the top.