Crossposted from Dependent Arisings:
Watching the Democratic debate last night, I couldn’t help but feel a little bad for John Edwards. In another election cycle, he could easily be the strongest candidate on the stage. Not only that, but if Obama hadn’t entered the race, he would’ve most certainly emerged as Hillary’s main competitor for the nod. Not to downplay Obama’s considerable rhetorical and organizational skills, but enough anti-Clinton sentiment appears to exist in the primary electorate that someone would’ve claimed that mantle regardless.
Still, watching Edwards play chess by attacking Hillary to then emerge as the future anti-Obama candidate gave me pause. Does Edwards really believe that he’ll be able to wrestle the (banal) "change" mantle from Obama, who is brilliantly harnessing voter dissatisfaction with unmitigated positivity? The two of them are suprisingly close in message–I almost felt like I was watching a good cop/bad cop scene at the debate, with Edwards’ fire to Obama’s ice.
So what is John Edwards doing? Is he hoping for a miraculous 2nd place finish in New Hampshire that will allow him to compete with Obama in South Carolina and Nevada? Unlikely. What Edwards is poisitioning himself for his difficult to impute—his ability to eek a win over Hillary in what was a high-turnout Iowa caucus gives weight to the notion that constituency within the primary electorate is organic and substantial. But it will never hand him the presidency.
Edwards remains the odd man out, but it appears he has a new strategy: carom of of Hillary, and right into Obama’s pocket. In most cycles, it would be highly improbable to imagine a candidate accepting a VP slot twice; 2008, as we are already witnessing, may be exceptional.Obama might be to cautious to pick the same running-mate as the party’s last standard-bearer did. Fear of muddling the "change" meme aside, Edwards makes the most strategic sense as a running mate forObama. Urban and rural, Northern and Southern, black and white, cerebral and visceral–the two would make a potent team. A thought, I’m sure, that has not escaped Edwards. It will be interesting to see, in the coming weeks, if in the event of a Hillary defeat in NH, Edwards turns his prosecutorial glance towards Obama. My bet is no.