With Hillary now being projected to (narrowly) win in New Hampshire, it looks like we have a competitive race on our hands. How competitive you ask? Well, as the title of my diary suggests, it is possible that this race will not be over on February 5th, or even in early March. And BOTH parties have a decent probability of this happening.
For the Republicans, we now have a three-way race between Huckabee, McCain and Romney. They each have delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire and Wyoming. In terms of upcoming states, the field could get ugly. I foresee a tough race in Michigan, where Romney may still be viable, as his father was a popular governor in the state. McCain won there in 2000, and could either finish first or second. Afterward is Nevada, where McCain's support of a broad immigration bill could help his standing among hispanics who choose to vote GOP. There are also a lot of Mormons in Nevada, support that Romney could build on as well. At the same time, Huckabee has nowhere to go until South Carolina. If he wins there, with McCain and Romney getting delegates in second and third-place showings, then they will move on to Florida, where I expect a tough race between Huck, Mitt, McCain and Rudy (although Giuliani isn't going to win no matter how much he thinks he will). Giuliani could possibly come in 3rd if the other candidates divide support amongst conservatives, especially when you consider the large number of transplants from the New York metro area.
When February 5th rolls around, you'll have five candidates left that can influence the election: McCain, Huck, Mitt, Rudy and Ron Paul. Giuliani could stubbornly stay in the race and win the New York primary due to home advantage (we haven't seen any recent state polling in NY for either party). In addition, Paul could chip away at delegates in the most unlikely of places. California could be fractured between the other candidates as a result. This could lead to a bloody, drawn-out battle through the next few months without a clear winner. Even if Mitt leaves, Rudy and Ron could do enough damage on February 5th to make things interesting.
...On the Democratic side we now have a strong two-person race, with Edwards getting the remaining delegates. While less likely than on the Republican side, a fragmented race on the Democratic side could still happen as well. Obama could still, for example, win in South Carolina, while Hillary will get Michigan, as her name is still on the ballot despite the fact that the DNC voted to strip Michigan's delegates. Nevada could still go either way, although we have no recent polling.
Meanwhile, Edwards has vowed to stay in until the convention
Unlike Kucinich in 2004 (and 2008?) Edwards still garners enough support to get his own, small number of delegates. Ad in the DNC's denial of delegates in Michigan and Florida, and we could be without a clear nominee in our party as well.
...So what does this mean for us, the Republicans and voters overall? Well, it means that both conventions should have record ratings and people giving a damn. We could have a scenario where Hillary or Obama only has 40-45% of the delegates and other two refuse to let their's go. On the Republican side, we could have Huck, McCain (or Mitt?) have a delegate plurality of 35-40%. Super-delegates, who have the ultimate say in each party, could decide to anoint the plurality vote-holders, but that would upset supporters of the other candidates and lead to division and depression turnout on Election Day. The solution?
COMPROMISE CANDIDATES.
As discussed here and here the possibility of even just ONE brokered convention may be small, it is certainly higher than in any recent election cycle. Imagine, as a result, waking up Labor Day weekend to find out that your general election choices are Gore and (Jeb) Bush? Or Clark? Or Newt? Or even Frist or some other dark horse for either party who secretly still wants the Presidency (Feingold? Petraeus? Cheney?)