A written off Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary. Although Barack Obama lead in all the latest polls, the only poll that counts proved all the pollsters wrong.
With this Clinton recreates the journey her husband took in 1992: lose Iowa, be written off and then resurrect in New Hamshire. But where Bill Clinton only placed second and claimed the moral victory which lead to his unstopple momentum further on, Hillary managed to win the NH primary outright.
To me, Hillary's victory in New Hampshire was caused by three things:
- the women vote came home to her, perhaps aided by the tearfull moment and the reaction towards it.
- although the vote in the Democratic primary outnumbers the vote in the Republican by some 60.000 votes, independents broke not enough towards Obama. Perhaps the Obama campaign became a victim of its own (apparent) sucess. Independents seeing and hearing all the noise about an Obama lead might have thought it wasn't necessary for them to chose a Democratic ballot and voted for McCain
- Older voters overwhelmingly outnumbered younger voters, a proportion that benefited Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters were over the age of 40, and they were breaking heavily for Clinton.
Although the difference is minimal (about 2 percent and they both have 9 delegates), Obama seems to have lost the expectations game.
A consequence of this victory is thus that Hillary probably will once more become the frontrunner. A torch held for a while by Obama. The victory will bring momentum to Hillary and the money that was drying up after Iowa will come pouring in again.
The battle for the nomination will certainly go on but the current field somewhat favors Clinton. She'll be going with momentum towards the next round of primaries. And - perhaps more important - the anti-Clinton vote is clearly divided. Obama and Edwards are both hunting for that vote. Obama is winning this struggle but with Edwards taking between 17 and 29 percent of the vote, these are votes that clearly aid the Clinton campaign as these ballots will not aid her nearest competitor.
So what's next?
Michigan Jan. 15
Nevada Jan. 19
South Carolina Jan. 26
Florida Jan. 29
Super Tuesday Feb. 5
Michigan and Florida have had their delegates stripped, so their impact might be debatable (Like the WY GOP caucuses). Nonetheless they're might be litigation to restore them and then the "remaining" delegates will add mostly to Clinton.
Nevada is an interesting game. It's a blue collar state and it's a caucus. Alas, Edwards and Obama might again be in eachothers way, giving Clinton a victory and extra momentum. Then we head to South Carolina, which with its large black population might be very favorable to Obama, but here Edwards will be siphoning votes off again and Clinton migth perform relatively well there. So we head towards Super Tuesday. With regards to Super Tueday two things will count: money and momentum.
The question is wether this de facto hasn't become a two way race: Clinton vs Obama. Then Edwards staying in the race clearly aids Clinton. As an Edwards supporter, with a heavy heart, I think it might be time for Edwards to start reappraising his campaign and think about dropping out... His staying in only aids the forces of the status quo, which to me Hillary embodies... And yes, John, only two states and 1 percent of the vote have taken place but you can't deny seeing the writing on the wall: it's turning de facto towards a two way race. As it always was intended to be: a front runner arises and an anti candidate arises. In 2004, Edards was the clear anti-Kerry candidate. Such a thing won't happen in 2008. That mantle passes towards someone else.
If Edwards stays in, he'll only make Hillary Clinton the nominee. And as a republican (not the party, but the anti-monarchical thingy), I detest dynasties. And we run the risk of 28 years Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton... Thus one can only say that if you don't have more luck before Super Tuesday: get out the way, drop out or you've arranged Hillary's coronation.
So, If I want avoid Hillary taking the nomination, I can only come to one conclusion: with a heavy I must now unendorse John Edwards and - for what it's worth - give my endorsement to Obama.