I've been away from DKos for a while. Life sometimes has a way of getting in the way, you know? Well, that and taking a little side trip to the Middle East for a few months. But, boy, what a time to come back!
When I returned to the US, nothing was more surprising to me than the rise of Mike Huckabee. When I had left in the Fall, he was one of the single-digit also-rans who got listed alongside Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo. The next thing I knew he was a frontrunner. A frontrunner! Then he won in Iowa. Now there's a real possibility that this "also-ran" could get his party's nomination. All this by a previously unknown former governor from a little town called Hope, Arkansas. Who'd have ever believed that?
And what the heck happened to Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani? A few months ago these were the guys that a lot of us were worried about having to run against. I'm not too proud to admit that I really thought Thompson would be a problem. Boy was I wrong! What'd he get in NH? 1%? I bet more Republicans voted for Dennis Kucinich. So much for Thompson. And Rudy's campaign is just a train wreck. I wonder if he's starting to realize that America's electing a president, not a mayor?
Oh, and then there's Mitt. I guess his holy underwear (I swear to God I'm not making that up – look it up) couldn't keep his candidacy from getting mauled.
But our side...
I have to admit that Obama's rise was kind of alarming to me. I'm just not sold on the guy. It's not that I don't think he's smart or capable. And certainly I recognize that he's a great speaker. It's just that there's something a little too feel-good flaky about him. He talks a good game about "bringing people together" and "a new kind of politics," but there's nothing new, and nothing of substance, to any of it. It just strikes me as a kind of vapid appeal to people who think that the Oprah show offers relevant, insightful social commentary. Even his book title, "The Audacity of Hope," sounds more like the work of a pretentious teenage girl than a serious statesman. To me, anyway.
So no one was more surprised than me when Obama schooled Clinton and Edwards in Iowa. I mean, that was an old-school ass-kicking. I really thought that Edwards was going to take Iowa. I get the feeling that Hillary's people thought that, too. Or at least were prepared for the possibility. I figured it would be Edwards, Hillary, Obama in that order with a tight grouping. Wrong again!
After Iowa, I figured Obama was going to take it all. The poll numbers in New Hampshire seemed to bear that out. Even the internal Clinton campaign polling had him winning, some say by double digits. But damned if Hillary and Bill didn't pull it out, helped, in no small part, by a very human moment on the part of the candidate herself. 39%-36% may not be a landslide, but a win's a win. Hell, in her victory speech I kept expecting Hillary to turn to her husband and say, "Who's the comeback kid now?"
What happened with those polls? I don't know. Neither does anyone else, judging from the pundits today. But they love it. They're like weathermen on the eve of a big storm. And why not? It certainly had a political junkie like me riveted.
What's gonna happen now? Hillary and Obama are going to have to fight it out. Edwards is down, but maybe not out – a surprise comeback win in Nevada or South Carolina could keep him in the game. Obama's ahead in South Carolina last I saw, but it's still two weeks away. That's a lifetime. And on the GOP side? I wouldn't even want to guess. Romney in Michigan? Not many delegates, but a #1 finish would probably keep him viable. Who takes South Carolina? Huckabee? McCain? There's a real possibility we could have a brokered convention. Maybe even TWO. The mind reels. For the first time in a long time we're actually having a real election.
Just freaking wow.