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I'm an Edwards supporter, with Obama a close second choice and Clinton coming in third. BUT I think all three of our top contenders are strong and progressive, so I don't think I'll be crushed if my guy doesn't win or if Hillary ends up being our nominee.

That said, I'd like to speculate a bit on some thoughts about Hillary's comeback in New Hampshire. Folks doing much more informed analysis of turnouts and demographics and such from the exit polls have been focusing on gender, race, age, change, experience, tears, news cycles, media backlash plus all the usual suspects. But I wonder if Hillary's secret ace in the hole might not have been the very worrying economic news that has been reported since the start of the new year. The new unemployment figures came out o January 5, two days after the Iowa caucuses; the djia has fallen about 12% since October -- and a big chunk of that decline happened between January 5  and January 8 (with a big 200+ point drop on NH primary day itself); Christmas is over but the bills remain; and the economy was cited by a lot of voters as their chief concern. Those voters, as I recall, broke for Hillary.

So while the "experience vs. change" theme seems to break in Obama's direction, economic concerns seem to go the other way. One way to understand that divide (given that all three of our top contenders take policy positions that at least seem to focus on the middle class and working poor) is that Clinton's longer track record (and yes, years in the White House as first lady) give voters the idea that she has the needed experience (and expertise) to manage the economy better than either Edwards or Obama, both of whom have powerful ideas but in some ways slimmer resumes.

It's just a thought. I'm no political scientist or economist either. But the role of economic anxiety seems to be under-discussed in our analyses of what's stirring in the country.

Originally posted to naknak on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:43 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Is it the economy? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    keikekaze, Abra Crabcakeya, LaEscapee

    Hell, no.  It's everything but none of it will get done, none of it, if we don't address the corporate corruption that runs this country.  We have to have a new way of doing politics in Washington.  Until then, we are at a standstill, while the crooks are lining their pockets.

    I got tased in *The Great Markos Candidate Meltdown Cranky Pants Sting of Ought 7*

    by nolalily on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:48:58 PM PST

  •  I think it is "the economy, stupid," . . . (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VA Breeze, Abra Crabcakeya

    . . . and that issue breaks for Edwards even better than it does for Clinton (or Obama).  Edwards is the most likely of the three to do anything at all to break the corporate stranglehold on our economy, which would improve the economy and everyone's well-being by putting money back into the hands of the 99 percent of the population who produce everything but don't "own" anything.

    "Do not forget that every people deserves the regime it is willing to endure." -- White Rose letter no. 1

    by keikekaze on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 02:53:23 PM PST

  •  not so fast (0+ / 0-)

    Edwards gets no such break on the economy...he only got 17% of the vote of those people who thought the economy was the most important issue facing the country.

    HRC owns that issue by about 9 points over Obama is our man to shrink the gap with HRC on this issue, currently at 9 points.

    And basically none of JREs plans are terribly practical...but thats not what his campaign is all about.

  •  Funny - I can't somehow forget (0+ / 0-)

    A pretty constant stream of bad economic news since about March of 2000 - about the time I realized that Bush was insane as well crooked and dim. WE moved out of more speculative stuff into CDs then - minimized losses , hunkered down. Began freezer /pantry stockpile last year in  December - check out your gorcery receipts from a year ago against recent. Beginning recession? BS! Been in one for nearly 8 years - Guv stats full o' bull.

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