Rumors have been circling for weeks about the potential retirement of GOP Congressman Richard Baker, the longest-serving Republican representative in Louisiana's delegation.
Baker himself has confirmed that he is indeed considering retirement,eyeing a lucrative position with a trade group representing the hedge-fund industry:
In an interview with the Times-Picayune, Baker said he was in talks with the Managed Funds Association and could decide within "a week or 10 days" whether to take a job as president and chief administrative officer.
"I will make a decision fairly quickly," Baker, 59, told the paper. "If it doesn’t work out, I am running for re-election."
I can see how the kind of cash associated with such a position might be attractive to a congressman mired in the minority for the foreseeable future.
Baker's Baton Rouge-based district was marginally Republican in the '90s, and in fact he nearly lost his seat in 1998, when he eked out a 51-49 victory against Democrat Marjorie McKeithen, daughter of a former Louisiana Secretary of State and granddaughter of a former Governor.
Since then, the district has become quite solidly Republican (as has the entire state of Louisiana), though not overwhelmingly so; it has a Cook PVI of R+6.5, and Bush defeated Kerry here 59-40.
McKeithen has opted against a run this fall, even if Baker does retire. However, Democrats have recruited an exceptionally strong candidate for the seat in State Representative Don Cazayoux, a 41-year old former assistant district attorney who recently lost a runoff election for Speaker of the Louisiana House.
Democrats are hoping that the post-Katrina influx of New Orleans residents to Baton Rouge can help make this district competitive once again:
State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) officially entered the race with a press conference in Baton Rouge, the seat of the 6th district and one of the top recipients of post-Katrina migrants.
An August report from the Louisiana Recovery Authority reported that about 30,000 people from the southeastern portion of the state most affected by Katrina have since moved to four Baton Rouge-area parishes. Those parishes comprise the majority of the 6th district.
Overall, most estimates put the total Baton Rouge migration since Katrina struck in 2005 at about 70,000. Baker did not face a difficult race in 2006, and the gubernatorial race in 2007 was not close, so it has been difficult to glean many concrete conclusions about political shifts in the area.
Cazayoux's statement upon entering the race:
"It’s time for a leader who is focused on investing in education, creating better jobs, making sure Louisiana’s working families can afford heath insurance and bringing our troops home with honor," Cazayoux said Tuesday. "I will bring my record of effective leadership and strong Louisiana values to Congress."
As a conservative Democrat with considerable clout within the state, Cazayoux would likely be Baker's toughest opponent since the 1998 race even if Baker did run for reelection. Thought LA-06 is a Republican district, he'd be a formidable contender if Baker does in fact retire.
It is unclear who the Republican nominee for the seat would be if Baker does retire. Former U.S. Senate candidate Woody Jenkins, who lost narrowly in 1996 to Mary Landrieu, has expressed interest in the race, and Baker's chief of staff Paul Sawyer is expected to run if Baker does not. This being a Republican seat, others can be expected to jump in if and when Baker jumps out.
Cazayoux is a conservative Democrat, no question; he kind of has to be, to be viable in such a district. Still, even as Louisiana trends red, it's good to know that we're still able to contend in districts like these.