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For previous diaries in this series, see here

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in early April

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.

TN has 9 congressional districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican
AL 7 districts, 5 Republican and 2 Democratic
NJ has 13 districts, 7 Democratic, 6 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating
AL-05    R+6    .56        Cramer           Yes            Safe
AL-07    D+17   .11        Davis            No             Safe
NJ-01    D+14   .37        Andrews          No             Safe for
                                                    Democrats, Andrews
                                                    may run for Senate
NJ-06    D+12   .31        Pallone          No             Safe
NJ-08    D+12   .34        Pascrell         No             Safe
NJ-09    D+13   .28        Rothman          No             Safe
NJ-10    D+34   .07        Payne            No             Safe
NJ-12    D+8    .56        Holt             No             Safe
NJ-13    D+23   .18        Sires            No             Safe
TN-04    R+3    .79        Davis            No             Safe
TN-05    D+6    .31        Cooper           No             Safe
TN-06    R+4    .74        Gordon           No             Safe
TN-08    D+0    .58        Tanner           No             Safe
TN-09    D+18   .07        Cohen         Only primary      Safe for Dem  

As for those held by Republicans

AL-01 R+12 .40
AL-01 is the southwest corner of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the gulf of Mexico.  
Bonner, first elected in 2002, has won easily even against an opponent with reasonable funding (in 2004, when Bonner got about the same as Bush).
His opponent this time is Ben Lodmell (nice looking site... With links to YouTube and lots of documentation on the evils of Bonner), and, if I am reading the FEC report correctly, he already has $50,000 COH.

AL-02 R+13 .48
AL-02 is the southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA.
Everett, first elected in 1992, is retiring
There is no confirmed Democratic challenger, although the mayor of Montgomery, Bobby Bright, is considering it.

AL-03 R+4 .43
AL-03 is eastern AL, bordering GA.
Rogers, first elected in 2002, won a narrow victory in 2002, and got only around 60% in 2004 and 2006, despite (in 2006) having a funding edge of more than 100-1.
The confirmed challengers are Greg Pierce, who lost in 2006, and Joshua Segall.  Bobby Bright (see AL-02) is also mentioned, but, since Everitt is retiring, Bright will probably run there.

AL-04 R+16 .82
AL-04 is an east-west strip in northern AL, not quite at the border with TN (TN borders AL-05, another east-west strip), but running from MS to GA.
Aderholt, first elected in 1996, hasn't had a close race since then, although his opponents have had little money.
The confirmed challenger this time is Greg Warren. Barbara Bobo, the 2006 challenger, might run again, as might Ron Sparks

AL-06 R+25 .74
AL-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state.  Why weird? Well, AL-06 is 89% White and R + 25; AL-07 is 62% Black and D+17.
Bachus, first elected in 1992, has won unopposed or with only token opposition since he got in.
There is no confirmed challenger

NJ-02 D+4 .49
NJ-02 is the southernmost part of NJ, bordering DE, Delaware Bay, and the Atlantic and including Atlantic City
LoBiondo, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents.  
There is no confirmed challenger, but assemblyman James Whelan might run.

NJ-03 D+3  .56
NJ-03 is an east-west strip from PA to the Atlantic, including Philadelphia suburbs and a lot of the Jersey shore, and the pine barrens.
Saxton, first elected in 1984, is retiring, and there is no confirmed Republican running (!)
The confirmed candidate on our side is John Adler

NJ-04 R+1 .58
NJ-04 is just north of NJ-03, and includes Trenton, Freehold, and Point Pleasant.
Smith, first elected in 1980, has won easily against underfunded opponents.  
There are two confirmed challengers: Amy Vazquez who looks like a true progressive (but whose website needs updating) and Josh Zeitz, who needs a website, but who seems to be raising a fair amount of money.

NJ-05 R+4 .79
NJ-05 is a boomerang shaped district running along the northernmost part of NJ, bordering NY and PA, and including some NYC suburbs.
Garrett, first elected in 2002, has been held to relatively narrow margins (55-45 in 2006) despite out-spending his opponent about 2-1.
There are a lot of potential Democratic candidates, and two confirmed challengers: Dennis Shulman and Camille Abate. From what I can tell quickly, Abate looks more progressive.

NJ-07 R+1  .72
NJ-07 is an S-shaped district (well sort of) across the middle of the state. It is the 5th highest income district in the country.
Ferguson, first elected in 2000, is retiring. He won a very tight race in 2006 against Linda Stender (winning by less than 3,000 votes out of 200,000).
There are several Republicans interested, but the only Democrat is Linda Stender.  She almost knocked off an incumbent, so I have to think she has an excellent shot (but her website doesn't seem to go anywhere, unless it's me).

NJ-11 R+6 .79
NJ-11 is a sort of blob shaped district in north central NJ, and is the 2nd wealthiest district in the nation.
Freylinghausen, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2006, he beat Tom Wyka 62-37, although he raised 100 times as much (Wyka only raised $12,000).
Wyka is running again.

TN-01 R+14 .68
TN-01 is the eastern part of TN, most of the narrow part of the state, bordering VA and NC.
Davis, first elected in 2006, won the GE easily after a tough primary battle.
There are no confirmed challengers, but several people are considering running.

TN-02 R+11 .58
TN-02 is the southeastern part of TN, including Knoxville
Duncan, first elected in 1988, has won easily against underfunded opponents. In 2004 he got 30,000 more votes than Bush
There are no confirmed challengers

TN-03 R+8 .58
TN-03 is shaped like a barbell: Two blobs with a stick in between. The southern blob includes Chattanooga and the northern part is mostly rural.  It runs north south and borders both VA and KY and GA.
Wamp, first elected in 1994, has won easily against underfunded opponents.  In 2004, he got about the same number of votes as Bush.
There are no confirmed challengers, and the 2006 challenger, Brent Benedict, has one of the strangest websites I've seen for a Democrat.

TN-07 R+12 .74
TN-07 is the southwestern part of TN, bordering MS and AL
Blackburn, first elected in 2002, was unopposed in 2004 and won easily in 2006.
There are no confirmed challengers

Summary: AL and TN look pretty bleak, although we might have a shot in AL-02.  At least the Democrats are safe, too.
NJ is a different matter.  All the Democrats are safe, but NJ-03 might be a gimmee,  NJ-05 is at least possible, NJ-07 is likely. I'd say we pick up two in NJ

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Jan 22, 2008 at 05:32 AM PST.

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