Surprising headline, but true! Here is why: In November 2008, there will be an election, and it will not be for President of the Democratic Party. The race in November 2008 will be for "President of the United States."
So it is of some interest to consider who is most likely to win a race in which everyone in America votes, not just Democrats.
It turns out that the clear front runner in that race is John Edwards.
Head-to-head polls show John Edwards beating more Republicans than either Clinton or Obama. In the Rasmussen poll, Edwards is the ONLY democrat who beats John McCain. Clinton loses 38-49, and Obama loses 43-46. Edwards wins 46-39. Here it is for your perusal.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Here's another head-to-head polling site. Here Clinton loses the popular vote to McCain 45-46 but wins in the electoral college, Obama wins 44-43 but loses in the electoral college, and Edwards wins in BOTH the popular vote and the electoral college.
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.co...
Some people have said "this year is different so let's cast off historical wisdom about red and blue states, sons of the south versus northern liberals". I'm not so sure that Americans' voting habits have changed all THAT much. But one thing clearly is different: We have LOTS of data to look at. Polls are being conducted constantly.
Although polls can be inaccurate, the head-to-head polls are as good as any other. And they are telling us something we ignore at our peril. To encourage further study, here is a cautionary note from the Washington Post, January 20, 2008:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...