On a heavy polling day with a lot of numbers to consider, Clemson University's Palmetto Poll just dropped with a bit of a shocker. They have all three major Democratic candidates (Obama, Clinton, Edwards) within 10 points of one another:
SOUTH CAROLINA PALMETTO POLL
Conducted by Clemson University, 1/15-1/23. MoE +/- 4/6%
Obama--27%
Clinton--20%
Edwards--17%
UNDECIDED--36%
This stands in direct contradiction to a new American Research Poll out of the state, which shows Obama at 45%, Clinton at 36%, and Edwards all the way down at 12%. Not only is the spread between the top three remarkably different, but they also have just 7% of the South Carolina electorate undecided.
Meanwhile, the already-diaried Zogby tracking poll has it at Obama 39%, Clinton 24%, and Edwards 19%, with the apparent notation that the one-day sample from Wednesday had Edwards at 27%.
Also, in the name of accuracy, I must point out that both Rasmussen and PPP dropped in with polls yesterday, showing double-digit spreads between first and second, and then again between second and third.
My two cents: this is proving to be an incredibly hard state to poll. The numbers are simply too variable. SOMEONE is getting this wrong, both in terms of the margin and the undecideds. My initial take would be that the Clemson poll is off, only because university polls have developed a reputation for instability. However, Zogby sees some of the same movement, so it is very hard to say.
I think pollsters are wrestling with trying to divine turnout, which has been one of the reasons why polls have been so haywire in this cycle.
This is a trend that seems poised to continue. In another interesting item, Ron Gunzberger's Politics1 is reporting that Florida Democratic primary turnout may be huge, as the absentee and early voting stats are exceeding 2004 GENERAL ELECTION numbers. And, lest we forget, this is a state which (unless the DNC changes its mind) will have no delegates at stake.
IN OTHER POLLING NEWS...
- Rasmussen polls Florida again, and finds a lead pack of three, with Rudy (who went all-in here) running third. The numbers: Romney 27%, McCain 23%, Giuliani 20%.
- Mason Dixon also polls the Sunshine State, and gets the top three Republicans in precisely the same order, except that Rudy runs a more distant third here: Romney 30%, McCain 26%, Giuliani 18%. On the Democratic side, we see Clinton at 47%, Obama at 25%, and Edwards at 16%.
- A mixed bag for Obama supporters from LA Times/Bloomberg. In the Democratic primary, they have Obama narrowing the race to single digits: Clinton 42%, Obama 33%, Edwards 11%. But in the GENERAL election, they have HRC leading McCain (46-42), while McCain has a narrow edge on Obama (42-41). By the way, they have the GOP primary continuing to be badly muddled, as they have it McCain 22%, Huckabee 18%, and Romney 17%.
- New polls out of North Carolina suggest the incumbent parties will hold all three contests. On the presidential front, McCain holds modest leads over both Clinton (49-42) and Obama (52-38). In the gubernatorial race, both leading Democrats (Richard Moore and Bev Perdue) have leads within the margin of error against the presumed Republican frontrunner, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Finally, GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole still leads Democrat Kay Hagan, but with a vote total under 50% (48-35).