Alternate title: The tragedy of "false hopes".
In a wildly popular diary yesterday entitled BREAKING: HRC Collapses Nationally - Rasmussen it was revealed that after just one day in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, Hillary Clinton had plummeted 8 points and was just 3 points ahead of Barack Obama. It also showed a bit of a surge for Edwards. Those numbers were:
Clinton 36%
Obama 33%
Edwards: 18%
Speculation ran wild over what Hillary might have done to cause this.
Well, I smelled a rat and wrote my own diary in which I noted that the concurrent Gallup tracking poll showed the race as to be steady as a rock.
And today, further confirmation that yesterday's poll was a case of bad data. Hillary has already regained a comfy lead:
Clinton 40%
Obama 31%
Edwards 17%
I thought that after New Hampshire, it was clear that polls should be taken with a grain of salt? Have we already forgotten? Are we so desperate for good news that we grab onto anything no matter how dubious? Honestly, if we want to keep our self-described reputation as the "reality-based community" intact, it would serve us well to be cautious.
So what will polling look like in the coming week? I think Obama gets a brief boost from his big win in South Carolina, but Hillary will milk Florida for all its worth in just 2 days. So it all may be a wash. 2 days after that, another debate....Hillary's strong area (and I doubt it will be as contentious as the last). Then Super Bowl. Then Super Tuesday.
I don't see how Obama makes up enough in that time for it not to be, as David Axelrod might say, "a good old-fashioned butt kicking" for him.
But hey, what do I know?