a side note. For those of you who saw my diary yesterday, I am not leaving. But I will be spending less time here. I'll stick check in, and write my series diaries, but I'm going to be posting a lot fewer comments and browsing a lot less.
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here. I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.
AZ has 8 congressional districts: 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
AZ04 D+14 .20 Pastor No Safe
AZ05 R+4 .47 Mitchell Yes Slight vul
AZ07 D+10 .27 Grijalva Yes Safe
AZ08 R+1 .46 Giffords Yes Slight vul
As for those held by Republicans:
AZ-01 R+2 .19
AZ-01 is the entire northeastern part of AZ, except for the odd blob in the middle that is AZ-02
Renzi, first elected in 2002, had close races in 2002 and 2006, and is retiring.
Confirmed Democrats include: Allan Affeldt; Howard Shanker; Ann Kirkpatrick and Mary Kim Titla and several others who might run. This looks like a good pickup possibility.
AZ-02 R+9 .47
AZ-02 is one of the most bizarrely shaped districts. It includes the western part of AZ (bordering NV, CA and UT, and then a thin strip of land into a blob in interior AZ, and another blob in the south to the western suburbs of Phoenix
Franks, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against underfunded opponents.
The Democratic challenger is John Thrasher, who lost in 2006 by 59-39, although he raised very little money.
AZ-03 R+6 .49
AZ-03 is the northern suburbs of Phoenix and Paradise Valley
Shadegg, first elected in 1994, was held under 60% in 2006 by Herb Paine, who raised less than $100,000.
The Democratic challenger is Bob Lord who has raised more money than Shadegg, and has more COH. Could get interersting.
AZ-06 R+12 .50
Flake, first elected in 2000, has not had a Democratic opponent since 2002.
In 2008, Richard Grayson
Summary
AZ-01 is definitely competitive, AZ-03 might be. I don't know how vulnerable Mitchell and Giffords are.