it's here. But, don't fear.
For over a year, I've been talking about a McCain McComeback (TM). So many people laughed, as the Senator had no money and was tanking badly in the polls.
Now, we've seen what was inevitable. He's won Florida, he's been gaining momentum, and now Giuliani is going to endorse him at the Reagan Library tomorrow (as reported by NBC/National Journal at about 9:55 ET tonight).
McCain was the inevitable candidate - he was the only one the Republicans could pick. Read below why this longtime McCain watcher knew it would happen, and doesn't worry about the upcoming general election (no matter who the Democratic nominee is).
McCain was inevitable, simply because he was "the best of the worst".
Giuliani: The Republicans could not coalesce around Giuliani, who was too "liberal" and frankly has proven to not be a good campaigner. He was far behind in his Senate campaign versus Hillary Clinton when he withdrew. His "strategy" for the Presidential campaign has been endlessly jawed over, and his mismanagement of his coffers has been highly questioned. He didn't have a chance unless he won in Florida today, and he's barely hanging onto third place. There was no way the big money and base would support him.
Huckabee: While Huckabee had some positives for the religious right base, the money behind the GOP engine didn't want this evangelist preacher to get the nomination. I actually predicted that he was the second most likely to get the nomination, depending on how prepared he was on the big issues, and how well he could campaign. Many missteps in his campaign proved he wasn't ready for the big-time. While many of us on the liberal side were appalled by his record on the death penalty (including him allowing allowing the execution of a schizophrenic inmate, and his politically-motivated pardon of Wayne Dumond (who committed rape and murder after release), many on the right don't care about those issues. There's one issue they care most about: winning the next election. They realized that Huckabee is not well prepared to be a viable general election candidate.
Romney: Mitt Romney had potential, but the powerful fundie Baptist arm of the party would never back him. His plastic fakiness also was a turn-off to many of the base. There's something about him, the charismatic-seeming businessman, who reminded people a little bit about George W. Bush. And, there are enough people in the GOP that are nervous about nominating a man who is a little like Bush. The Repubicans are in the same boat the Democrats were in 2004: they need to select the most electable person. Someone who smells a little like Bush makes them nervous. They're more comfortable nominating someone with excellent credentials and a war hero than someone who comes off like an amiable used car salesman.
Thompson: I still believe Thompson's campaign was simply a game. The powerful people in the GOP talked him into running for a couple reasons: get a little excitement into a drearily dull campaign season, and make McCain look younger and more energetic. Thompson (who is younger than McCain) did both - he peaked interest, then was a big lead balloon that made McCain look better.
So, after years of watching McCain, I was really worried about a year ago about the notion that he appeared to be the inevitable candidate. He was honestly the Republican's best chance, really the only one they could conceivably get behind to nominate. After seeing the Republican and Demoratic races play out these past few months, I've become much more comfortable with the notion of a McCain nomination. Three reasons:
- His age is an issue. Many people who can do math better than Chuck Norris are concerned about his age. His only way to combat this is to pick a very strong, well-respected younger running mate who isn't TOO young and energetic seeming.
- His "shoot from the hip" style gets him in trouble. He is well-known to be a very cranky person, and can truly be an asshole to people when he doesn't realize that cameras are rolling. I've seen it dozens of times before - he tries to keep his cool and seem like a nice guy, then blows up. He can try to wing it, making statements that can bite him later (like his recent assertion that he doesn't know much about the economy).
- The Democratic turnout has been astronomical in the primary races, in all states except where the Democrats didn't matter because there are no delegates to be awarded (MI and FL). People desperately want a big change, and they are eager to elect a Democrat.
- McCain represents "more of the same", either Clinton, Obama or Edwards (heck, I still hope his campaign will pick up steam, but I know it's not likely) seem youthful, energized, polished and more like CHANGE than McCain will. Any of our candidates will out-class McCain, will out-debate McCain, and will be a sign of energy and hope for a better future.
I'm excited at where things stand today. I knew McCain would make his McComeback, simply because he was the GOP's only hope. Whomever we nominate, we'll beat McCain and the Republicans this fall.