The PPP just released a poll for the New York Democratic Primary, and the results are rather surprising.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45-33. Former candidate John Edwards was at 10%. Most recent polling had shown Clinton with over 50% in the state, so this is an indication that Obama is gaining a little bit on her.
Most striking is that Obama trails by only 12 points despite earning the support of only 44% of African American voters in the state.
"Barack Obama has a lot of room to improve his black support in the state," said Debnam. "If he can do that and also pick up a majority of former Edwards supporters who might be attracted to his message of hope, he has a decent chance of making this primary much more competitive than it was expected to be."
Breaking down the numbers a bit more, the PPP poll shows a significant problem for Clinton in her own home state.
First off:
Obama is only trailing Clinton by 2 points, 40-38, for men. But race is not really all that important. He is only beating Clinton 44-32 among African Americans. If he can boost that number over 50%, he could actually move to within single digits of HRC in her own home state.
Looking at age breakdown, Obama beats Clinton among voters younger than 45, 46-38 (among voters 30-45). Surprisingly he is tied among studnets with Clinton, 38-38.
Basically among two of his cores, African Americans and youth, he is not doing as well as he could be. If he were to increase these percentages he could create a troubling scenerio for Clinton.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...