Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute have a new poll out showing Senator Norm Coleman losing to Al Franken.
First, some preliminaries.
Senator Coleman's Approval/Disapproval ratings are 50/34.
Senator Klobuchar's Approval/Disapproval ratings are 66/19.
Now, the three candidates for the Democratic nomination are Mike Ciresi, Al Franken, and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.
Among those candidates, Franken is the favorite. Among all Minnesotans, Al leads with 32%, then Ciresi with 17% and Nelson-Pallmeyer with 3%. When restricted to Democrats, the numbers change to 42/18/3, respectively.
But now for the big one, How does each candidate compare against Coleman?
Note: the MOE is 3.2%
Franken v Coleman: Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%
Ciresi V Coleman: Ciresi 38%, Coleman 43%
Jackson-Pallmeyer v Coleman: J-P 29%, Coleman 47%
On the three biggest issues (Economy/Jobs, Health Care, and Iraq) Franken enjoys double-digit leads over Coleman.
True, Franken and Coleman are statistically (but just barely) tied, but when you're approval rating of 50% generates a 40% showing in the polls, that's not good news.
One thing is for certain, Coleman is in trouble. As the economy continues to struggle, Iraq fails to make any progress, and people struggle to afford health-care (I'm including the under-insured), Coleman's chances get worse. He's tried to back away from some of his right-wing positions, but the people aren't buying it.
After Tuesday night, when we should have an idea of who the Democratic Nominee is (here I'm speaking for Senate, since the DFL will also caucus those candidates), we should hopefully get a clearer picture of where the field lies, with some of the undecideds choosing a side.
Another note, the sampling is skewed towards Democrats, with them making up 52% of the respondents and Republicans only making up 34%.