This is a simple prediction diary. Having formerly been involved in a number of campaigns it is easy to get lost in the politics of the moment. With due respect to Kos, I believe that contrary to the current poll standings betweens Senators Clinton and Obama, as well as the matchups with McCain, I believe that Obama will be the next President. I don't even believe the general election will be close (a think a 6-10 point spread) There will be no links here, no substantive analysis, just a gut check. In the interest of full disclosure, I will be voting for Barack Obama in just a couple of days. This final decision was made only this past week, having previously rooted strongly for Dodd and then Richardson. So here we go.
- The Constitution Matters. As a constitutional lawyer he will have the proper perspective on the role of the president. I don't think he has to make this argument directly, it will come out in various ways during the campaign. (Think of signing statements)
- People like him. (people also like his wife) They also like him more than Clinton or McCain. How many posts have you read here about how someone's republican father or friend like's Obama. Its happened to me too, many times, and from those I could never imagine ever voting for a Democrat. After all the bull of a long campaign, the people in the middle vote for the person they feel most comfortable with.
- People don't like this war. Even if the situation in Iraq improves, they don't like it, don't want it, and McCain and to a mucher lesser extent Clinton, are tarred with this horror.
- THIS IS A COMBINATION OF SEVERAL COMMENTS. Barack has moved beyond a 50 state strategy, to a 435 congressional district strategy, campaigning and asking for votes everywhere. Did you see how he did in rural Nevada? He is not ignoring anyone. Which leads to number 6.....
- New voters. Damn. Look at how many people are voting in Democratic primaries and caucuses. Do you really think the evangelical base is going to churn out the vote for McCain the way they did for Jr? Even if they do, they already lost the center on the war and the economy.
- Newtons' Laws of Motion - look at the poll numbers. Objects in motion tend to stay in motion. The Clintons have fought tooth and nail and run an extremely effective campaign, managing to dominate many news cycles. Obama has continued to rise throughout. That becomes a self perpetuating story.
- He is the opposite of Bush's defining characteristics: wise vs. (fill in your favorite perjorative here) genuine , intelligent, and non-polarizing figure. Although Sen. Clinton is intelligent, competent, and strong, it is tempered by (fairly or unfairly) a common attitude that she is calculating, arrogant and polarizing. We tend to elect choose those who are radically different from the prior president's defining traits.
- (THIS POINT EDITED IN REPONSE TO A COMMENT) He is young (only 46) and allows a generational change in the government. Remember when Time Magazine featured Clinton/Gore on the cover as the new generation of leadership? That was a big plus for them at the time. There is a definite age gap between the HRC and Obama voters. All those new voters I mentioned in number 6, hint - they are very young. And speaking of change....
- Change, everyone talks about it, he embodies it. (Think Clinton/Bush/Clinton/Bush or McCain 30 years and counting)
- Hope springs eternal. Remember the vision thing we have heard so much about in past presidential campaigns. He has it. Sen. Clinton can try to play up the fact that she has Kennedys endorsing her. No one is arguing that she has a vision of the future. A vision of hope allows a wide variety of people to project their own vague hopes and dreams onto him. This is what creates a tidal wave of support. Not a better health care policy, not how much they support any particular cause, but hope, simply hope, that tomorrow will be better.