For what it's worth (given the not particularly reliable nature of recent polls) The Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1 shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie!
Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina from the race. By contrast, McCain's wins in primaries in South Carolina and Florida and the winnowing of the Republican field have had a dramatic result: The senator from Arizona is now the clear front-runner for his party's nomination.
Story should be online soon at http://www.washingtonpost.com
The Washington Post remarks that the Democratic race appears likely to be undecided after Tuesday.
The basic fault line between Clinton and Obama remains leadership and experience versus a new direction and new ideas. And since Edwards' exit on Wednesday, both candidates have worked relentlessly to remind voters of their apparent strengths. Three-quarters of voters who prioritize a solid resume said they back Clinton; 70 percent of those seeking a change-oriented candidate said they support Obama.
While Clinton has the edge on the issues voters say are most important to them, and enjoys a wide lead on the question of who is a stronger leader, Obama now holds a seven-percentage-point advantage as the candidate who would do the most to bring needed change to Washington.
And Clinton's once-sizable lead as the Democrat with the best shot at winning the White House has shrunk significantly; in the new poll, 47 percent said she is the most electable, while 42 percent said Obama has the better chance. In hypothetical general-election matchups, both Democrats run neck and neck with McCain, and both lead Romney by double digits.
Personally, I prefer Obama.
And THIS I have to question:
On the Democratic side, Clinton's supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama's, with three in five of hers saying they strongly support her candidacy, compared with roughly half of his who said they back him strongly.
I am not sure I buy that at all.
In addition to the experience-versus-change dynamic, gender and racial differences continue to define the Democratic contest. Women support Clinton over Obama by a 15-point margin (53 to 38 percent), while men back Obama by a 10-point margin (50 to 40 percent).
Among white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton is favored 52 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads among black voters 62 percent to 30 percent. White men are evenly divided between Clinton and Obama, though white women back Clinton by more than 20 percentage points.
As he did in early-state voting, Obama continues to hold an advantage among independents nationally. He also does better among liberals, particularly among those who said they are "very liberal," than among moderates or conservatives. Clinton still leads among those with family incomes of under $50,000 and those without college degrees. Obama has a better than 2 to 1 advantage among those with post-graduate degrees.
Democrats continue to give Clinton higher marks on key issues. She holds big leads over Obama on health care and the economy and a narrower edge on Iraq. The two run about evenly on immigration.
UPDATE: On the hostility
I have been a regular blogger here for quite some time but due to many circumstances have not blogged since the primaries have really heated up -- until now.
I have to say, judging from some of the comments, that I am disappointed
at the MUCH more hostile postings by adherents to various Democratic candidates as they joust with their intra-party rivals.
I am not particularly shocked about it, but I don't think it lends to a sense of community.
I posted this as an informational item on polls leading up to Feb. 5.
I DID point out that I prefer Obama over Clinton, and apparently that was enough for some to open fire.
Well, not much I can do about that behavior.
Except to say I don't think it is healthy, in many ways.