of all the delegates to be awarded on super tuesday, more than half will be awarded at the district level. there will be 526 delegates awarded based upon the proportional votes within the state.
but because partial delegates are not awarded, a candidate needs to win 70% of the vote in alaska in order to secure an additional delegate, while in California an extra delegate is awarded for every 1% of the vote statewide. it is possible for a candidate to rack up large wins in small states and not see any benefit in the delegates awarded.
so, in each state how big a vote do you need to win a statewide delegate?
state by state results below...
economists would call this the elasticity of voting results.
these are in addition to the delegates awarded at the district level.
i've grouped these to help put them in perspective:
HIGH IMPACT STATEWIDE DELEGATES
pretty much, each percent of statewide total adds a delegate in:
california
new york
illinois
so, for example, if hilliary gets 55% statewide, she will add 55 statewide delegates to the district delegates.
LIKELY IMPACT STATEWIDE DELEGATES
Several states will add statewide delegates to the candidates district-earned delegates at rates in which a marginally better voting percentage will add statewide delegates. they are:
Massachusettes (every 3% points earns another delegate)
georgia (again, every 3%)
new jersey (4%)
minnesota (4%)
tennesse (4%)
missouri (4%)
said another way, a candidate would have to get 54% of the vote in missouri in order to earn georgia in order to win more than half the delegates. in these 5 states, its likely that one of the candidates will get 50% + 3% and take another statewide delegate.
NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT STATEWIDE DELEGATES
in these states, i think it is unlikely that either candidate would earn the additional percentage necessary to add a delegate - i think of these states as giving half the statewide delegates to each candidate. the states, with the required percentage return necessary to earn more than half of the statewide allocation:
alabama (56% gets more than half the delegates)
connecticut (56%)
oklahoma (58%)
arkansas (58%, hilliary might get there)
arizona (59%)
NO WAY THE STATEWIDE DELEGATES ARE ANYTHING OTHER THAN 50/50
in these states i'd expect that all the statewide delegates will be awarded 50/50. One candidate would have to substantially outperform the other in order to have a one delegate impact.
new mexico (49% of vote earns 4 delegates, 51% earns 5. a candidate would have to see 62% of the vote to earn 6)
utah (63% of the vote necessary to get more than half)
deleware and alaska (these states also have an odd number of statewide delegates. so, 49% earns 2 delegates, 51% gets 3, but you would need to get 71% of the vote in order to earn 4)
IN CONCLUSION
in 6 states the statewide delegates are going to be awarded 50/50, with really little opportunity to change that.
Hilliary might be able to get to 58% in arkansas and oklahoma; 55% in tenesse or missouri; and, 54% in new jersey and massachusettes.
obama's best opportunities are 56% in alabama; 54% in minnesota and georgia (he might even get to 58% and take 2 statewides).
illinois and new york are home states, so let's say they each do well at home. that will be a wash in statewide awards.
so hilliary goes into super tuesday with a potential 6 additional statewide delegates to earn. but then there's california - if one candidates wins 56% of the vote, they go home with 54 statewide delegates and the other gets only 44. really, california is the only place where the statewide delegates will have a substantial impact on the delegate haul for any candidate.
wahoowa