Inspired by poblano, I have done a state-by-state prediction for Super Tuesday, without the cool graphics.
As we've seen, the polls are all over the place, so I tried to look at poll averages, campaign visits, & the amount of TV advertising. I list below the states I expect to vote for either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama in order of margin of victory, along with the total of pledged delegates to be allocated, the projected popular vote margin of victory, and then the projected gain in delegates. This assumes perfect proportionality (i.e., you win 55% of the vote and 55% of the delegates). Of course, that's not going to happen perfectly in any state, but when you add all of the projected delegate gains together, you come up with an approximation of who will come out ahead in delegates tomorrow night.
If there's a wave, some of the close states could break one way or the other. And no, I'm not predicting American Samoa.
Clinton
- Arkansas (35 delegates total, +26% victory margin, +9 delegates)
- Oklahoma (38, +22%, +8)
- New York (232, +18%, +42)
- Tennessee (68, +12%, +8)
- New Jersey (107, +6%, +7)
- New Mexico (26, +6%, +2)
- Arizona (56, +6%, +4)
- Massachusetts (93, +6%, +5)
- Missouri (72, +2%, +2)
- California (370, +2%, +8)
Obama
- Illinois (153 delegates total, +32% victory margin, +49 delegates)
- Idaho (18, +32%, +6)
- Alaska (13, +24%, +3)
- Kansas (32, +20%, +6)
- Utah (23, +20%, +5)
- Georgia (87, +14%, +13)
- North Dakota (13, +14%, +1)
- Delaware (15, +14%, +3)
- Minnesota (72, +8%, +6)
- Colorado (55, +6%, +3)
- Alabama (52, +6%, +4)
- Connecticut (48, +4%, +2)
So with over 1600 delegates being handed out tomorrow, what is the grand total? Obama +6. (I didn't set out for such a close result, I just went state-by-state and that's what I ended up with). Clinton is winning bigger states, but she will win them by smaller margins than Obama wins his. Also, Obama should win Illinois by over 30% and Clinton may be held to under a 20% margin of victory in New York. Obviously, a lot of states will be sufficiently close that the winner will only get a handful of delegates more than the loser.