I'm writing this late in the evening before Super Tuesday, and will post it in the morning before I go off to work at the local Obama headquarters here in Maryland, preparing for our primary next week. I spent the entire month before the Iowa caucuses in Iowa volunteering for the Obama campaign, and have talked to people who worked in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and there is one crystal-clear message from all of those states. (I haven't personally talked to anybody who worked in Nevada, so can't personally vouch for what happened there.)
THIS IS ALL ABOUT GETTING OUT THE VOTE! If we're behind in some polls, it's because they all adjust for likely voters. There is no doubt in my mind that we're ahead in actual numbers of people, BUT WE NEED TO GET THEM TO THE POLLS. We didn't do it in New Hampshire -- I fear because we believed the message from the polls and from the large turn-out at rallies that we were going to win, and didn't keep our eye on the ball: IT'S ALL ABOUT GETTING OUT THE VOTE!
The typical Clinton supporter is a middle-aged or older empty nester who has voted in virtually every election since they were eligible to vote. THEY WILL TURN OUT. The typical Obama supporter is a younger person with a job and a family, or perhaps a college student or high school senior. Our typical voter has a lot of things on his or her plate, and may not have voted much (if at all) in the past. We beat expectations in Iowa and South Carolina because WE GOT OUR SUPPORTERS TO THE POLLS.
Poll results don't vote, and people attending and cheering enthusiastically at rallies don't (necessarily) vote. PEOPLE WE ACTUALLY GET TO THE POLLS VOTE.
On caucus night in Iowa, I was assigned to a rural precinct where I thought we'd do well to come in third, based on the contacts we had done previously there. Thirty minutes before the cut-off for attendees registering for the caucus, the Hillary supporters were virtually all there, and there were a fair number of Edwards supporters, with others coming in fairly steadily. We had a handful of supporters, and I seriously wondered if we'd even be viable.
But then our precinct captain began introducing himself to the people in line waiting to register to vote, and they were virtually all Obama supporters. And then our already-registered supporters began arriving in a steady stream. It ended up that we tied Hillary for second in the precinct, one delegate to the county convention behind Edwards. I thought we might have been over-doing the calls and door-knocking during the few days before the caucus, but that was far from the truth. Our supporters generally had to get home from work and get the kids fed, and then come out to the caucus. And our student supporters (some of whom were local high schools students who were already back in school, and others of whom were college students who were still home for Christmas break), had lots of other things they were doing.
If we hadn't kept reminding and reminding our supporters, I'm convinced that a lot of them wouldn't have turned out at all, rather than arriving during the last 30 minutes. We reminded them during the days immediately preceding the vote, and again on caucus day by leaving door hangers on their doors.
In South Carolina, I understand that the GOTV efforts were even more extensive, including an effort to call every identified Obama supporter 3 times and visit their house twice on election day, until they indicated that they had voted.
So this is my plea to my fellow Obama supporters in this community: Let's stop obsessing about the polls, and start WORKING to get our guy the nomination. The polls are close enough in most states that it's ALL ABOUT GETTING OUT THE VOTE. If you haven't already done so, contact your local Obama organization to volunteer in your local area. You can find it by going to barackobama.com and following the links to your own state. And volunteer to call, or travel to, another state that still hasn't voted, if yours will have voted today or earlier. This nomination won't be decided today, and there's still a lot of work to do.
If you have't already maxed out on contributions for the primary season, try to dig a little deeper and make another contribution. Anything will help.
If you're lucky enough to live in a state where people can still register to vote in the primary or caucus, volunteer to register some new voters -- especially young people. Or do it on your own. A team of 3 of us, with no official support from the campaign, registered 203 new voters at two local high schools on the last day that one could register for our primary, and although we were precluded by the schools from campaigning or identifying ourselves as being Obama supporters, I would estimate from the conversations I heard that probably 80% or more of those new voters were Obama supporters. Seeing the enthusiasm of those young people, who were rounding up their friends to come and register to try to improve their future, was one of the best experiences I've had in years. This campaign is, to an unprecedented degree, a true grassroots effort, so there's no need to get official sanction to do what you think needs to be done in your area.
And my final plea is this: I have no idea what will happen today, but whether we do better than expected or worse than expected, barring a totally unforseen collapse by one of the Democratic candidates, THIS NOMINATION WON'T BE DECIDED TODAY. I saw way too many diaries and comments after Iowa claiming it was essentially all over and we had won, and way too many of them after New Hampshire saying it was essentially all over and we had lost. But WHATEVER happens today, we ALL need to get to WORK in whatever way we can.
I'll post a tip jar, but if you want to tip the Obama campaign where it counts (at least financially), you can do it here:
http://my.barackobama.com/...
But even more importantly, if you want to really help the Obama campaign, VOLUNTEER!