It's both harder and easier than you might think to predict what today's Democratic primaries will entail. Karen Tumulty outlines several factors that will influence results, including one that tends to keep the delegate count pretty close in any state that is competitive. Delegates are divvied up by voting district, and in any district where there's an even number of delegates (e.g. six) Obama and Clinton will receive the same delegate total unless one wins a lopsided victory. As a result, the campaigns usually focus their efforts on those districts that are awarded an odd number of delegates, because there even a narrow victory gives the winner an additional delegate.
So it's possible to use the odd-even distribution of delegates by district to narrow the likely range of possible outcomes, state by state. Al Giordano has a series of readable and wonkish posts at The Field, in which he prognosticates the Super Tuesday results by time zone. Worth checking out here, here, here, and here. Some of his predictions are a bit risky and perhaps slightly too sanguine about Obama's chances, but Giordano's opinion is worth having. Here for example is his overview of the Massachusetts race:
The Field predicts a long night before a winner is determined. If it’s a short night, and the networks are able to project a winner, that also projects very good news nationwide for the victor. But most likely the two candidates will fight to a virtual delegate draw, with a slight delegate edge – five to eight delegates – for Clinton, for whom Massachusetts is a must-win state to slow down the Kennedy-Obama snowball from rolling through post-Tsunami Tuesday states. On the other hand, if Obama can eke out a victory here – where Clinton led by 17 points just last week – and such a surprise is announced early in the night, it could provide a huge shot to Obama’s late afternoon get-out-the-vote momentum in California. Clinton could take as much as an eight delegate edge out of Massachusett, or she could tank there. It’s one of the most interesting contests of the night.
The big prize is California, and Giordiano devotes a separate and very detailed post to that race. Bottom line?
The Field estimates that of the 241 Congressional District delegates available, Clinton will win 122 and Obama will win 119: A net gain of +3 Clinton.
For the 81 at-large pledged delegates, if Clinton were to beat Obama by a factor of ten percentage points (yes, I recognize that is higher than likely and the result could very well be the reverse of that, too, but I don’t see either candidate winning California by more than 10 points), She would get 45 delegates to 36 for Obama.
Best case scenario for Clinton: 177 delegates to 155 (+22 Clinton).
Best case scenario for Obama: 164 delegates to 158 (+6 Obama).
The "wild card" districts that bear watching, he argues, are CA District 1, 5, 9, 10, 14, 29, and 31. Good fun ahead.
Tell us your own predictions.
Update: For CA also take a look at dday's forecast.
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