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Obama has, at this point, won 11 states, of 22 in play. Worst-case scenario, he's already won half. If he picks up Alaska, which I suspect he will, he wins the battle of the states.

California is looking like it might head SUSA's way, so that'll be good news for Hillary. But the rest of the night is bleak. She didn't exceed expectations anywhere. She lost states she led big in just a few weeks ago. She's hurting for money. The calendar up ahead is tailor made for Obama. The momentum is there.

And hey, look at that -- Obama just took the lead in Missouri. The rest of the counties are Hillary counties, so this might still swing back her way. But wow, did the morons who called this one early at AP, Reuters and Politico blew this one.

Update: Never mind, Boone is out, it's a college town, and Obama leads 61-36 with only a quarter in. Obama wins Missouri.

Update II: Can people please stop saying certain pollsters are good or bad depending on whether they agree with the results? SUSA was awesome (as usual) and Zogby sucked (as usual). I'll analyze some of the others in the coming days.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:08 PM PST.

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