The proverbial cork is about to pop in Mesopotamia.
(And, it won’t be coming out of a champagne bottle either.)
Looks like vacation time’s over in Iraq, folks. The hierarchy of the Mehdi Army is becoming increasingly frustrated with both the American occupiers and al-Qaeda in Iraq, and is now exerting unified pressure on cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to forego reinstating the ceasefire that’s been in effect for his Mehdi Army for the past six-months. Despite being given little credit until recently by the Bush regime and the U.S. press for its substantial role in the overall reduction in violence across the country, the ceasefire has no doubt enabled the U.S. military to take undue credit for success with the so-called "surge."
Depending on whom you listened to back then about when the surge was actually fully in place and operational, it’s pretty likely that the start of the substantial reduction in overall violence throughout the country coincided with Sadr’s August 29 announcement of a six-month freeze of all operations by his feared Mehdi Army.
Even without an active Mehdi Army in the picture, the violence in Iraq has increased drastically this month; an ominous fact born out by the extensive day-to-day coverage of February’s carnage in Iraq by McClatchy Washington Bureau.
Daily Roundup of Violence in Iraq:
• Friday 1 February, 2008
• Saturday 2 February 2008
• Sunday 3 February 2008
• Monday 4 February 2008
• Tuesday 5 February 2008
It's very possible that the current level of violence is only a prelude to the potential bloodbath that could be unleashed upon both the Iraqis and the U.S. military later this month.
Sadr is reportedly gauging the mood among senior figures and five main committees that had reported back with their views on the truce, Sadr's spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi, one of the cleric's senior officials in the southern holy city of Najaf, told Reuters AlertNet:
Ubaidi said one of those committees made up of Sadrist legislators in Baghdad, had recommended not renewing the ceasefire, citing problems with the authorities in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad.
"The parliament committee said they don't want the ceasefire to remain. They want it lifted because of oppressive acts by security forces in Diwaniya," he said without elaborating.
Recent statements from Sadr's camp have indicated growing unhappiness that followers were being targeted by Iraqi forces.
Ubaidi said he was not authorised to say what the four other committees, representing political and media groups, provincial offices and imams, had recommended.
Ubaidi added that Sadr would issue a statement around February 23 if he had decided to extend the ceasefire. His silence would mean it was over.
"Either he will announce the extension of the freeze or he won't say anything. If he keeps silent, that means the freeze has come to an end," Ubaidi said, without saying exactly how it would be known the truce had formally ended.
Sadr, who led two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004, ordered the Mehdi Army to observe the ceasefire so he could reorganize the splintered militia. Up to then, Mehdi Army fighters were often involved in fierce clashes with U.S. troops or violence with Sunni Arab groups.
The Pentagon once described the militia as the greatest threat to peace in Iraq, a term now reserved for Sunni Islamist al Qaeda in Iraq.
The U.S. military sees an extended ceasefire as key to sustaining security gains. Since last summer, attacks have fallen nearly 60%.
Brigadier-General Joseph Anderson, chief of staff for the Multi-National Corps-Iraq, said last Friday he was confident Sadr would recommit to the freeze on hostilities. Although violence has fallen, the U.S. military says it has continued to target "rogue" Mehdi Army units.
I could be wrong here, but it seems to me that it’s quite possible that the "oppressive acts by security forces in Diwaniya" -- mentioned by Ubaidi as the impetus for not extending the ceasefire – were carried out by the U.S. military on "rogue" Mehdi Army units. But that’s just me.
In Iraq, success is fleeting...
Peace