The results of February 5 lead to two conclusions: John McCain will be the Republican nominee for president, and the Democratic contest will go at least another month after Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama divided up the delegates. This bodes well for the Democratic Party, regardless of which of our two candidates emerges as the eventual winner. Join me on the flip.
This week's results guarantee that we will see hotly contested elections on the Democratic side in several states voting over the next month. I will skip discussion of most of these and focus on the big March 4 states: Ohio and Texas. Yesterday, we received news that the Obama campaign has sent Paul Tewes, the architect of the Iowa victory, as well as field organizers from across the nation, to Ohio. No doubt both campaigns will be focusing their attention on Ohio and Texas over the next four weeks.
No one who has paid any attention to American politics this century needs to be told how important Ohio is in presidential elections. Having both candidates marshall their resources to get voters out over the next month will tap into the nationwide enthusiasm for Democrats in a crucial bellwether state. Millions will go to the polls in March, increasing the chances that they will return again in November.
This does not only benefit the eventual nominee, it will have effects downticket. Here in Ohio, we have several challengers to Republican House incumbents, and the more people who vote in the primary and select Steve Driehaus, Vic Wulsin, Bill O'Neill, Mary Jo Kilroy, John Boccieri, or any of the other Democratic House challengers, the better our chances to get some of them elected in November.
I won't pretend that the Democratic nominee is likely to win Texas in the fall. If that happens, not only will it be a major upset, but it will signal a rout the size of which native Texan Lyndon Johnson would savor. Yet having so many resources poured into Texas is good for the party. Acontested primary with one candidate who has energized Hispanic voters in the west and another who has drawn 20,000 to a rally in Austin will help build enthusiasm for a party that has had a tough time over the past decade or so. Getting voters to the Democratic polls on March 4 will help build the party in the long term; in the short term, it will benefit an outstanding Senate candidate named Rick Noriega as he prepares to battle unpopular incumbent John Cornyn in November. Having a presidential primary that matters may generate millions more primary votes for Noriega than he'd otherwise get, votes which may help his fundraising, his media coverage, and may also prime voters to get in the habit of selecting his name on the ballot.
Aside from strengthening the party in Ohio and Texas, the continuing primary season promises to energize voters in states like Virginia, Louisiana, and Wisconsin, all of which are important to Republican chances of retaining the White House. Given how enthused Democratic voters are for the two remaining candidates (aside from a surprisingly heavy turnout in Florida, I will repeat that the Republican winner in Iowa had fewer supporters than the third-place finisher in the Democratic caucuses, the Republican winner in New Hampshire received fewer votes than the second-place finisher on the Democratic side, and in Illinois yesterday, Hillary Clinton received more votes than John McCain, even though McCain won his primary and Clinton lost to Obama by about 30 points), I expect the next month to demonstrate Democratic strength across the nation -- including building the party in Ohio and Texas.
Let's get to work and build some more.