Is it me, or has HRC effectively conceded this race. Over the past 24 hours, her campaign has repeatedly stated that they are focused on the big states such as Texas, coming up in March.
It has become common wisdom on this site that Barack Obama has structural advantages over the next few weeks caucuses and primaries. These reasons being summarized as follows: he has been very successful at caucuses, his will be competing in states with large African American populations (VA) or higher educated, more liberal states (WI).
The fear is that team HRC is playing the expectations game to lower a positive media coverage for Barack and possibly hope to gain momentum if she pulls an upset. I think the fear is unfounded and, in fact, this is a major flub by her campaign, one of the biggest made yet for a couple of reasons.
First, she demoralizes her own base by a statements that she is looking past the next few weeks into March. This will reduce volunteer efforts, suppress financial support, and more critically, discourage super delegates in the Februrary states from stepping forward on her behalf.
Second, if she concedes the field, if even for a few weeks, she gives Barack a free hand with the media. How many times do you think the typical news organization will follow-up a Barack win with "HRC has drawn her line in the sand in Texas" It is more likely that the Guiliani comparison will be made. Another New Yorker thinking they can outwait the opposition, ignore Middle America, and make their play "later" Any experienced political analysist would be hard pressed to come up with an example of where it works, and plenty of times where it failed.
I can only surmise that her senior staff is floundering to come up with a rationale that will explain away the continuation of Barack's constant move upward over the past few months. The handwriting is on the wall. HRC needs Barack to stumble. (another reason she has proposed 5 debates) Anything to shift the focus from the upcoming races she doesn't see a way to win. three solid weeks of losses will bury her, if they happen, no matter what her current standing in the polls for the March primaries. Its not rocket science, there is a very good chance this race is over before March.