Since it will be so much fun to listen to all the frothing, spinning and wheedling, here's yet another poll that shows just how much more electable Obama is than Hillary. The Time mag poll released today shows that, while Hillary and McCain are tied in a national match up at 46-46, Obama has a statistically significant lead of 48-41 over McCain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/... 2008/president/national.html
I'll also point out that Hillary leads Obama 48-42 in the same poll--in the interest of fairness.
On the other hand, the daily four-day Rasmussen Poll today showed Barack tied for the first time with Hillary at 44-44 -- a four point increase in the four-day rolling average in just one day. Oh boy, tomorrow should be a day for gnashing of the teeth among the Hillarians.
It's worth looking at all the last few head-to-head polls listed by Real Clear Politics--the site for Real Clear Polls and Really Distorted Commentary.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
In those polls--Time, CNN, Cook, ABC, Fox and NPR--McCain leads Clinton by an average of 46.7 to 45.2, while Obama leads McCain by and average of 47.5 to 44.2--just outside the average amount of votes the Republicans will steal with electronic voting and vote caging in the Fall elections. Also, Obama wins 5 out of 6 polls against McCain, while Clinton only wins 1 and ties 1.
The reason, unfortunately, for this, I believe, is the sixteen-year campaign against Hillary by the right wing press and talk radio. The consequence is that she becomes more and more unpopular the farther she is from mass media or Spanish language markets. Thus, Obama's sweep so far, often by very large percentages, of every Midwestern and Rocky Mountain Caucus or primary. Again, the importance of this is the reason the Democratic Connvention is in Denver this year is the recognition, at last, that the only clear way to a Democratic presidency requires several victories in Midwestern and Rockie Mountain States. If you compare their purple state pull based on elections so far and a bit of extrapolation, it's remarkable how many more purple states Obama puts in play than Hillary. Here are my comparable numbers:
Look at Obama's numbers vs. Hillary on Feb 5. in the purple Midwestern and Mountain States: Colorado: Obama 67-32, Iowa: 38-29, Illinois: 65-33 (only in bec. Hillary could lose IL head-to-head against McCain), Kansas: 74-26, Minnesota: 67-32, North Dakota: 61-37, SD and I'd throw in AL: 56-42, MS, NC, and SC: 55-27, where Obama has a good chance to win a purple state and Clinton has none. (In fairness, Clinton has a tremendously better shot in AR 27-70 and a better one in TN 41-54, and they've got an equally good shot in both MO and LA.)
http://www.cnn.com/...