I support Barack Obama and am superficially pleased that Hillary Clinton will be (reportedly) trying to move more of her effort for Tuesday's "Potomac Primary" across the river into Virginia and leaving Maryland alone. But I also have some concerns.
Maryland's Democratic Party is rich with Senator Barack Obama's likely strongest constituencies: well-educated "whites" and African-Americans. (Obama has done well among African-American voters of all backgrounds but Maryland's, particularly suburban DC's, large constituency of African-American voters are quite affluent and well-educated on average.)
Maryland's political machine headed by Governor O'Malley and Senator Barbara "Got your back, Bushie!" Mikulski are official chairs for Senator Clinton's campaign, but Obama stands an excellent chance of stomping all over the Free State. Obama's easiest-to-reach constituents are far more numerous in the Party (e.g. the party is 1/2 Black and Montgomery County is wealthy, extremely liberal, Democratic and 1/6 of the ENTIRE state) than Clinton's likelier constituents.
Here are the reasons that we MUST NOT get lazy in Maryland. Oh of course we must not get lazy anywhere but here's why Maryland matters.
- Maryland is too big, too rich in cash and too rich in delegates for Clinton's operative Mark Penn to spin away if she gets pwned here. DC is meaningful in the delegate count because while small, it's 90%+Democratic. And, let's get real, it's majority African-American, which will play into Team Clinton's well-telegraphed cynical meme of "we won among the real voters, real Americans, the ones who wouldn't have voted except that LBJ let them, the ones who don't vote for 'Jesse Jackson'." (Editor: Some commenters below find this characterization unfair but I stand by it.) She can write-off DC among racially cool or cold whites. She cannot write-off Maryland and we should not let her get away with playing any "expectations" games either.
- A big effort in Maryland will help win Virginia as well. Obama's best shot for VA is in the DC suburbs of Northern Virginia, which looks a lot like Montgomery County, MD demographically and economically. It's one media market and one Metrorail system connecting the region. While GOTV is truly local and Obama's campaign will have to exert its A+ to win Virginia, it has proven that it can.
- This is of course a Democratic primary, which means that it's very important to run up the score; it's important that Hillary starve, not that she get the smaller piece of the wishbone.
- Most of the House leadership lives or used to live in Maryland. I don't mean that they rent apartments here; I mean that Nancy Pelosi's voice still reflects East Baltimore accent of Little Italy where she grew up, Chris Van Hollen represents western and central Montgomery County, and Steny Hoyer - a controversial figure here - represents a challenging district in the distant DC suburbs of southern Maryland. It's important that those people get the word hard that Obama swept their state.
- Donna Edwards. DONNA! Donna is running in MD-4 which stretches across an LSD-influenced gerrymandered blot, maybe a yoga position known as "upward-facing anus." Anyway, it's about 2/5 in Montgomery County and 3/5 in Prince George's, not exact numbers. Blue district. SAPPHIRE BLUE. Obama is the exciting new thing and so is she. Kos has been marvelous in backing her here as has most of the Blue netroots. Both she and her opponent, incumbent Albert "Really Got Your Back, Mr. President" Wynn, have endorsed Obama and will be passing out handbills with both of their pictures on them. (Or at least Wynn will and Donna BETTER!) I am pleased that I will be part of the field legal volunteers for Donna who will try to keep an eye out for anything resembling the, ahem, irregularities in a few very-late reporting precincts last year.
In any event, while Al Wynn will pretend otherwise, a massive turnout for Obama gives Donna a big boost, not because Obama is so liberal but because he represents a new era, not the "establishment" (no matter how much Mark Penn repeats the contrary.) By any rights, this district should be represented by a member of the House Progressive Caucus or someone who fit in easily there. At least Steny Hoyer in MD-5 has a bunch of old money tobacco farmers and rednecks culturally conservative rural Euro-Americans with whom to deal; Wynn's district looks more or less like Queens, not Kansas.
Obama supporters, we need a rout. We need Hillary Clinton to get physically ill every time somebody talks about Maryland crab soup, we need her to feel queasy when people talk about the Ravens or Orioles (okay, bad example, that's every Marylander.) Until after the convention, of course. I am not anti-Hillary, she is extremely impressive and smart. I am just pro-Obama because I want the most anti-Bush candidate that I can get.
Peace to all.