As WGA members consider a proposed deal with the AMPTP, and WGA leadership decides how, and how quickly, to end the strike, there are a lot of questions. I for sure don't know the answers to all of them, and some of them probably don't have answers at this point. But here's a try, and some resources.
Is the strike over?
Not yet, but almost certainly within a couple of days. One possibility is that the WGA board could vote to end the strike prior to a ratification vote by the union's membership. In that case, writers could be back to work on Monday. Another possibility, advocated by most of the founders of United Hollywood, and reported by Deadline Hollywood Daily to be the plan, would be to hold a vote of the membership with 48 hours notice. The membership will vote on the deal eventually, but this way, the strike wouldn't end until it was clear that that was the majority choice. That would have writers back at work on Wednesday.
So when will my favorite TV shows be back on?
If your favorite shows are late-night talk shows, they should be back on as soon as the strike ends. But,
Dramas and comedies like Fox’s "24" and "Back to You" are likely to take weeks to get back in production. Weaker shows might not return at all, and shake-ups in network planning might delay the return of others.
So depending on the show and the network, it could be a while.
Did the writers win?
Unfortunately, it's not that simple. They certainly didn't get everything they deserved, but they got a lot more than they would have had they not gone on strike, or ended the strike a couple months ago. That's a victory, just not the "hot damn! this is perfect" kind. Reports are that meetings on the east and west coasts were positive though not euphoric; questions were raised, but the overall mood points to acceptance of the deal.
David Latt at United Hollywood:
Personally, I believe we have negotiated a very good deal--with this contextual proviso--given what the AMPTP wanted us to get. Is the deal a fair and equitable valuation of our contribution to their businesses? No. Could we get more if we did something different? What would that be? The only real power we have to get an improvement of the deal is to stay out on strike. We only gain more clout once SAG begins its negotiations and that doesn't happen for at least 4 months. Our leverage doesn't increase during that time, so we'd have to keep on picketing and wait. That seems counter-intuitive and destructive in the extreme.
So what did being out on strike for three months get the WGA?
Well, it gets fairly technical, as this summary (PDF) shows, and I am not an expert in entertainment finance issues. But a first-glance reading of the deal by Robert Elisberg amplifies my own (less informed) first reading: There are several advances made in the language of the deal, the way things are defined and precedents are set. That's important both for enforcement of this contract and for bargaining for future ones. But enforcement will be key, especially in an industry as renowned for fuzzy bookkeeping as film and television. Tom Smuts, another WGA member, makes similar points specifically regarding the "initial streaming window," or period of time in which a show can be viewed online without triggering payments to writers.
But because new media is new, and we don't yet know all the ways content will be acquired through new media, a lot of this is guesswork. Will people only stream things when they're relatively new and the writers therefore aren't being paid, or will people keep watching weeks and months after an initial airing? Radically different possibilities for how this will play out are posed in a point-counterpoint at United Hollywood.
Christopher Kubasik, supporting the deal, argues that:
While the big bucks (and the obsession) is often about the money that a movie makes the first week or two (or a TV show makes on its first run), the real money -- and I mean, the real, real money -- is in libraries.
The music industry didn't fall apart because of MP3 players. It fell apart because the music industry was producing albums that had 2 good songs and and 12 lame ones -- and the consumers said, "Okay... well, I don't want the 12 lame ones, just the two good ones." The music industry didn't catch on, Steve Jobs did, and there we go. Because it wasn't about illegal downloads. It was about people getting the music they wanted. Once it was more convenient to just pay .99 cents a pop instead of pirating, people started paying.
As for film and TV content, yes, opening box office is great, and so are great ratings. But the truth is that this idea that studios and networks control WHEN we watch something is over. Just over. People want to watch when and where it is convenient for them to watch. And today's technology allows them to do exactly that. Now, the media company's are either going to meet that need, or piracy will continue to grow.
Digital media will offer what I call "perpetual syndication" -- all of MGM and NBC and who-all-else's libraries will be there all the time. It's no longer a matter of filling air time (which is only a limited number of slots) but of an infinite number of shows being available all the time.
But Kristen Stavola sees viewing habits, and therefore the money coming from streaming, very differently:
The Initial Streaming window is a terribly dangerous precedent to set.
Here’s why. Think about the things that really matter in this industry:
*OPENING NIGHT BOX OFFICE
*PRIME TIME FIRST RUN RATINGS
*FIRST WEEKS’ RECORD SALES (and downloads)
Before long we will add the first week of online streaming to that list. I’ll try to make this as simple as possible.
WHO DOESN’T LOVE TiVo?
If you own a DVR/TiVo — how long do you wait to watch an episode of something you recorded? Same day? 3-5 days? 7 days at most? Well, that means you’re viewing habits are consistent with the rest of the DVR viewing public. You want to see your recorded episode before the next one airs. Research backs this up. Get in touch with the folks at Neilsen. ComScore. HitWise. Gartner. Harris Interactive. Forrester. You will be hard pressed to even find much research on viewing patterns beyond the 7 day window, I know I was. [Dig through the links of information I’ve attached below.]
ONLINE COPY CATS
Online viewers are comprised mostly of the lost broadcast audience. No one is even disputing this. At least no one I’m talking to or reading. Nevertheless, Internet streaming IS REUSE; this has already been established. The primary market for material created for Broadcast use is via broadcast/cable. So, we apply the DVR viewing trend to online viewing. If you are going to watch an episode, it’s typically something you missed and you want to catch it within the first week it’s broadcast, right? (esp. "appointment programming" like LOST!)
You try to catch it from work. Or you try to fit it in on the weekend. But you definitely want to fit it in while it’s still topical, before the next episode, etc. And, once again, you are consistent with the rest of the viewing public. And the numbers for online viewing of TV and feature films are expected to soar in the next several years. Again, something that no one is disputing. Check here to see traffic trends for the season premiere of LOST. Note the spikes and valleys.
Almost every point in what's been negotiated could give rise to equivalently differing interpretations. Ultimately, on the specifics, all we can do is return to the will of WGA members, who will be voting on this soon. But there's a broader victory. Workers stood together on this, got more out of the studios than the studios wanted to give, and gave people all over the country who would rarely think about unions a union to cheer for. They put solidarity - not just among themselves but between writers and actors and others - in the headlines.