It's the calendar stupid. It's the fact they are joined at the hip (when it's hurting them). They need Texas and Ohio to vote now. Three weeks is a long time. Three weeks of their former friends in the media beating them up. Three weeks of Obama's superior campaign chipping away. Let's get specific on the flip.
Let me be absolutely clear. This election should be won by Hillary Clinton. She really has worked for decades to get to this point. She really has worked on major issues. She knows how government could work. I understand the frustration of some Hillary supporters. The country should elect Hillary. In many ways she's earned it. But it is not likely to be and it will be the Clintons fault.
This election calendar was designed by and for the Clinton campaign. They wanted a frontloaded schedule so she could run the table early. In fact, early on you may recall, her deputy campaign mgr sent a memo saying they should skip Iowa. Unfortunately, this memo got leaked and they had to re-double their efforts.
They used Bill more. They sunk a lot of money into Iowa. They put Hillary on the road more. The problem was they never changed the message. Remember what the message was? It's inevitable. Get out of the way, the Clintons are coming to save America. She has the Experience. Look at the resume. 35 years of Excperience.
When history is written, this campaign's approach will be derided. It flew in the teeth of what the voting public is feeling. Voters want to be Americans again. They want to lift their heads again. We want to be proud. We want an economy that produces real jobs not foreclosures. We've rejected the past, we're looking for a real change in direction.
Obama on the other hand has built a campaign based on change, on the future and on the word WE not me. He is not just a terrific speaker, he has ideas and substance to back it up. He has been consistent, competent but also fired up and working hard for our votes. He has shown he can take a punch and come up fighting. He has built a field organization seconfd to none. This is why he can win and beat an opponent who should have won. His image is of a tall, sure person who speaks directly to us.
Back to the Clintons. One of their big mistakes was to put Bil out on the campaign trail and spotlight him almost as much as her. All the years of careful separation while she built her own identity as a competent Senator got flushed as Bill, the bulldog chomping at the bit, took on Obama. Big Mistake. We liked Bill as the ex-President who was building an organization and raising money to help solve problems. We don't like Bill when he goes negative. This is not a year to go negative. It didn't work. South Carolina proved it.
What is happening inside the Clinton campaign tells another story. Infighting, blaming, changing leadership at a time when time itself is precious. There isn't a moment to lose and yet they're losing both time and money. History is sweeping the past up and this is a year about the future.
Three weeks is a long time in politics. Three weeks of watching both of these candidates in action. Of course Hillary wants more debates, that's more her strength. The problem is two debates only fill so much time. What do you do with three weeks. Obama shines on the campaign trail. He speaks, thousands cheer, they get fired up. He fills stadiums and arenas with people hungry for change. He is a rock star out there. Hillary is simply not a great speaker. It looks forced, it's not her strength.
At the same time, Obama's field operation has grown as they are adding staff while Clinton is shedding staff. Three weeks of Obama's team focused on three states (OH, TX, and PA) will eat into the Clinton lead. If she does not maintain a double digit lead in the polls, once again the momentum will shift. And fast. What if Obama gets within 8 points..that will be the story and it just picks up speed from there.
My state of Maine is an example of what's going on. Our voters are elderly and female. Clinton had a double digit lead in the polls just 30 days ago. But the narrative that was building in other states was having an affect. Then the troops hit. Obama put 5 staffers in the state two weeks before the caucus. A few days later 10 more staff joined them. Their goal was to find people who would speak for him at their local caucus and call others to come to the caucus. Meanwhile, no sign of a Clinton staff.
A few days before the caucus, a handful of Clinton staff show up but their job is primarily to set up the events for the family. Result? Well, our previous record turnout for the caucus was just four years ago, about 17,500. In crappy weather, over 44,000 turned out and Obama won by almost 20 points. A blowout in Maine.
Here's the reality. Clinton either wins Texas and Ohio big (at least 8 points) or she'll find unpledged delegates leaving in droves. If you're a governor or a congressman and Obama just cleaned up in your district, you have to get practical.
Another example. Obama just won rural Virginia. Try and put your head around that one. White men is rural Virginia voted for Obama. They could have voted for McCain or Huckabee but they voted for Obama (not all but a lot). Culpepper Virginia was a conservative rural town. Four years ago 6.8% turned out for the primary. This year 28% turned out and 55% voted in the Democratic primary. If you're the Clintons, what do you do? She's running the message of Tested. Ready on Day One. You know who else used that? Rudy Giuliani.