Today on TPM, Greg Sargent reported that Obama’s advisers held a conference call this morning and said "we’re close to wrapping this up."
At first I thought this was a tactical mistake. Yes, Obama had a good night on the Potomac, but campaigns should always manage expectations. Never guarantee victory when the winds of fortune can change. I recalled the wise, droning voice of Tom Brokaw on MSNBC last night, saying "Never count the Clintons out."
Then I did the math.
CBS has had the most reliable count of pledged delegates. I took their partial results from yesterday’s primaries, supplemented them with more up-to-date information from The Green Papers(I can vouch for their accuracy in DC and MD) and added everything to the totals that obtained on February 10.
The result is 1,114 pledged delegates for Barack and 981 for Hillary with only 1,158 pledged delegates remaining. This means that Barack only needs to win 545 delegates to secure 51% of the total number of pledged delegates.
Yes, Hillary has a 69 delegate lead among the supers. But that’s a margin of less than 1% of all delegates. Does anyone really think that margin will hold up if Barack achieves a clear majority of pledged delegates? I strongly agree with diarist TheWurx and others that undeclared superdelegates will back the popular winner. If they were going to endorse Hillary, they would already have done so.
So Barack’s magic number is 545, which is only 47% of the remaining pledged delegates. The implications for the Clinton campaign are daunting. If Barack splits the delegates elsewhere, then Hillary needs to win 57% of the delegates in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania to keep Obama from a clear majority.
Aint. Gonna. Happen.
The Potomac states – including usually disenfranchised voters of DC – tipped the election last night.
Updated: Thanks to B P Pgh for helping to correct the first version of this diary.