In this diary, I will look at what I consider to be the worst case delegate counts for Obama in the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. What I mean by worst case here is that a reasonable worst case, I am not including possibilities like the implosion of the Obama campaign.
Flip over to the other side.
I make a couple assumptions in this diary:
- Obama will get at least 75-80% of the black vote
- Obama will get at least 15% in any district, he will not be not viable anywhere.
I am assuming as well that the final percentages will be about C-60 O-40, so about a 20% win for Clinton.
So here it goes, my worst case predictions by district:
OH-1 C-2 O-2
OH-2 C-3 O-1
OH-3 C-3 O-2
OH-4 C-3 O-1
OH-5 C-3 O-1
OH-6 C-4 O-1
OH-7 C-3 O-1
OH-8 C-3 O-1
OH-9 C-3 O-3
OH-10 C-4 O-2
OH-11 C-3 O-5
OH-12 C-3 O-2
OH-13 C-3 O-3
OH-14 C-4 O-2
OH-15 C-2 O-2
OH-16 C-4 O-1
OH-17 C-4 O-3
OH-18 C-4 O-1
At large: C-19 O-12
PLEO: C-11 O-7
Total Ohio: C-88 O-53
Pennsylvania:
PA-1 C-3 O-4
PA-2 C-3 O-6
PA-3 C-4 O-1
PA-4 C-4 O-1
PA-5 C-2 O-2
PA-6 C-3 O-3
PA-7 C-4 O-3
PA-8 C-4 O-3
PA-9 C-2 O-1
PA-10 C-3 O-1
PA-11 C-4 O-1
PA-12 C-4 O-1
PA-13 C-4 O-3
PA-14 C-4 O-3
PA-15 C-3 O-2
PA-16 C-4 O-1
PA-17 C-3 O-1
PA-18 C-4 O-1
PA-19 C-3 O-1
At large: C-21 O-14
PLEO: C-12 O-8
Total Penn: C-98 O-61
Total in these two states in a 72 edge in delegates.
Clinton can wipe out most of Obama's lead in pledged delegates if this scenario were to hold, and I'll do a similar thing for Texas later. Now granted, some of these picks are going to be tough, for example, Obama will likely win PA-14.
This should be motivation to prevent this from happening.