Over the past week and a half the idea of an Obama presidency has taken on a new reality. Enough that many are looking past the campaigning to ask about actual policy issues.
Will Obama be a well-versed realist who "would open a whole new chapter in U.S. relations with the rest of the world," as one expert puts it, or a naive idealist who "is enormously lacking" in foreign-policy experience, in the words of another.
The truth is "we just don't know," a third says with a shrug.
Lacking a definitive answer to the big question that President Clinton referred to as rolling the dice on the future of America, perhaps we can learn more by looking at who is whispering in the candidate's ear. Yesterday I published this diary on the Obama Political Team and received enough encouragement (or perhaps insufficent discouragement) to offer Part 2, a look at Obama's policy team.
Apologies for errors or ommissions and thanks in advance for comments and suggestions.
Poll a handful of policy experts and you'll get different views on whether we can trust Barack Obama to speak for the United States in the world and to guide his country safely through the dark nights that are bound to come.
Anthony Cordesman, a veteran foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a conservative, is sanguine. He has briefed Mr. Obama and considers him a foreign-policy realist: a pragmatic politician who will take the best advice and act prudently to advance U.S. interests.
"This is a very intelligent man," he believes. "He is never going to put partisan politics or ideology before the national interest.
Observers generally characterize Mr. Obama's foreign-policy team as younger and more idealistic than Ms. Clinton's, more anxious to chart new directions in America's global relations, more eager to engage the potential of soft-power diplomacy, in which the United States leads by example rather than coerces by force.
It has been widely reported that early in his senatorial tenure Obama had his staff begin bringing in outside experts for wide-ranging discussions on policy.
Obama brings the Socratic style of a law professor to policy discussions and enjoys the give-and-take of opposing views, advisers said.
"It's very spirited," said one longtime aide. "He tests out ideas and challenges people. Nobody is allowed to be quiet."
At first glance a comparison of the BHO and HRC foreign policy teams inspires the comment, "Where's the difference? They all worked for Bill Clinton." However, a deeper examination exposes some fundamental distinctions.
It's true that a number of Obama's key advisers--like former National Security Adviser Tony Lake, former Assistant Secretary of State Susan Rice and former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig--held prominent positions in the Clinton Administration.
At the same time, Obama's team includes some of the most forward-thinking members of the Democratic foreign policy establishment--like Joseph Cirincione and Lawrence Korb of the Center for American Progress, the party's leading experts on nonproliferation and defense issues, respectively, along with former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke and Carter Administration National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski.
Added to the mix are fresh faces who were at times critical of the Clinton Administration, like Harvard professor Samantha Power, author of "A Problem From Hell", a widely acclaimed history of US responses to genocide. These names suggest that Obama may be more open to challenging old Washington assumptions and crafting new approaches.
Hillary Clinton's camp, meanwhile, is filled with familiar faces from her husband's administration, like former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke. Unlike Obama's advisers, the top Clintonites overwhelmingly supported the war in Iraq.
So let's have a look at some of the key players on the Policy Dream Team.
Foreign Policy: John McCain is an authentic American Hero
Has anyone else imagined what would happen if there was a terrorist attack on US soil between now and November? One can imagine that this is the policy area where Obama will receive the most incoming fire from the right-wing noise machine. He cannot afford a mis-step, so this team better be good. It is reassuring to see that, on paper at least, they look VERY good.
Anthony Lake: Senior Advisor on Foreign Policy
President Clinton’s original national security advisor and now a professor at Georgetown’s school of foreign service, Lake is leading the foreign policy team. He began giving informal foreign policy advice even before Obama won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Although clearly not perceived as a hawk, Lake was an advocate within the Clinton administration of military intervention in Haiti and Bosnia.
Some may have forgotten Lake's contested nomination to CIA Director during the Clinton presidency. The nomination ultimately failed and George Tenet was appointed in his place.
Susan Rice: Senior Foreign Policy Advisor
On leave from the Brookings Institute, Susan Rice served as Senior Advisor for National Security Affairs on the 2004 Kerry-Edwards campaign. She was US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs from 1997-2001 during the Clinton administration and from 1995-1997, Rice was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for African Affairs at the National Security Council.
Rice is an eloquent advocate for Obama and gave an interesting, and to me very reassuring, interpretation of his national security perspective during an interview with The Real News.
"Obama recognizes that one of the consequences of globalization is that we live in a world where transnational security threats can arise from any part of the globe and rapidly spread to any other part of the globe. So whether we're talking about terrorists, weapons of mass destruction, disease, environmental degradation, and climate change, these effects are now communal, in a sense, because we can't isolate them in any part of the globe."
"So he has talked in terms of recognizing that we have a common security, that the security of Americans is inextricably linked to the security and wellbeing of people in other parts of the world, and we share a common humanity. So a common security and a common humanity. The common humanity means that we're all people of equal worth, and if we act on the basis of understanding and embracing that common humanity, dealing with issues of conflict, of insecurity, of poverty, of underdevelopment, of disease in parts of the world that we have long ignored, we're not doing that only out of a moral and humanitarian concern, as important as that may be, but also out of a recognition that by doing so we'll enhance our own national security"
Rice can't resist adding the following spin.
That's a very different insight than you typically hear from most of our politicians, and it's not a retrospective insight, which I think is the foundation of where Senator Clinton's coming from. She talks about restoring American power, getting back to where we were at the end of 2000, when President Bush came in.
Zbigniew Brzezinski: National Security Advisor
The former national security adviser for Jimmy Carter is now a Center for Strategic and International Studies counselor and trustee and frequent guest on PBS’s NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
Brzezinski is a controversial and potentially polarizing figure in the inner circle of Obama foreign policy advisors, however if he sticks to his talking points from this opinion piece in the Washington Post he should do just fine.
The "war on terror" has created a culture of fear in America. The Bush administration's elevation of these three words into a national mantra since the horrific events of 9/11 has had a pernicious impact on American democracy, on America's psyche and on U.S. standing in the world. Using this phrase has actually undermined our ability to effectively confront the real challenges we face from fanatics who may use terrorism against us.
The damage these three words have done -- a classic self-inflicted wound -- is infinitely greater than any wild dreams entertained by the fanatical perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks when they were plotting against us in distant Afghan caves. The phrase itself is meaningless. It defines neither a geographic context nor our presumed enemies. Terrorism is not an enemy but a technique of warfare -- political intimidation through the killing of unarmed non-combatants.
Colin Powell: Informal Foreign Policy Advisor
I wouldn't add Colin Powell's name to the official Advisors list just yet but Obama has met with him and with Bush 41 NSA Brent Scowcroft. Given Obama's consistent repetition of the "working coalition" theme, it might be a good idea to keep Powell on the long list for a cabinet position in an Obama administration, especially since he told CNN last week that he may not back "Mr. 100 Years of Occupation" in November.
"I am keeping my options open at the moment. I have voted for members of both parties in the course of my adult life," Powell, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "And as I said earlier, I will vote for the candidate I think can do the best job for America, whether that candidate is a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent."
Sarah Sewall: Counterinsurgency Advisor
Sewall was the deputy assistant secretary of defense for peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance during President Clinton’s administration and is now director of Harvard’s Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. She wrote the introduction to the University of Chicago edition of the new counterinsurgency manual Gen. David Petraeus revised for the military, is advising on counterinsurgency strategy.
Joseph Cirincione: Informal National Security Adviser
Joseph Cirincione is Senior Fellow and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress and author of the new book, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (Columbia University Press, Spring 2007). He worked for nine years in the U.S. House of Representatives on the professional staff of the Committee on Armed Services and the Committee on Government Operations, and served as staff director of the Military Reform Caucus.
In May 2004 the National Journal listed Mr. Cirincione as one of the 100 people whose ideas will shape the policies of the next administration. The World Affairs Councils of America also named him one of 500 people whose views have the most influence in shaping American foreign policy.
Lawrence J. Korb: Informal Foreign Policy Adviser
Korb was assistant secretary of defense from 1981-1985 and is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.
Richard A. Clarke: Counterterrorism
Three words: "star power" and "credibility"
President Clinton and President George W. Bush’s counterterrorism czar is now head of Good Harbor Consulting and an ABC News contributor.
Richard Danzig: National Security Advisor
Danzig was President Clinton’s Navy secretary and is now a Center for Strategic and International Analysis fellow. He has written on the potential dangers of terrorist strikes using biological weapons.
Samantha Power: Foreign Policy Advisor
Among the early additions to Obama's circle of advisors was Samantha Power, professor of practice and founding executive director of the Carr Center at the Kennedy School of Government (KSG), who wrote a Pulitzer Prize-winning book arguing for more vigorous U.S. action to counter genocidal campaigns. She took a leave from her faculty position to help the new senator with foreign policy and remains an influential adviser.
Fair disclosure; I cannot say anything even remotely critical about Power. She has the combination of brains and beauty that makes me go weak in the knees. If that isn't enough, she is Irish (i.e. she can drink) and a Red Sox fan.
Power said she hopes to work closely with Obama and his advisors on "three or four issues" of foreign policy, including United Nations reform, the genocide in Darfur, and the detainment camp in Guantanamo.
Daniel B. Shapiro: Middle East
National Security Council director for legislative affairs during President Clinton’s administration and now a lobbyist with Timmons & Company.
Dennis B. Ross: Middle East
President Clinton’s Middle East negotiator and now a member of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Ross has been criticized by some for supporting the Israeli occupation of the West Bank.
Robert Malley: National Security Advisor
Malley was President Clinton’s Middle East envoy and is now the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program director. He is currentlly generating quite a lot of controversy for Obama because of his perceived Anti-Israel slant.
Perhaps in response to mounting criticism, the Obama cmapaign recently downgraded Malley's advisory role.
An Obama spokesman, Tommy Vietor, says, "Rob Malley has no day-to-day advisory role in the Obama campaign. He is among many people who has given his advice to the campaign. The actual day-to-day Middle East advisor is Dan Shapiro."
So where does Obama really stand on the "Palestinian Problem"? Like most of his positions it is probably somewhere in a delicate middle that will ultimately prove unsatisfactory to both the pro-Israel lobby and Palestinian activists.
If Social Security is the "third rail" of US economic policy, Israel/Palestine is just as electric (and potentially fatal) in foreign policy discussions. So why do I find myself actually attempting to write something intelligent about the issue? The only excuse that comes to mind is Robert Downey's comment on his cocaine addiction; "It's like I've got a revolver in my mouth and I like the taste of gun-metal".
Anyway, here goes with a positioning reference from this article in the Jerusalem Post.
On his way out the door in 2000, President Clinton actually had a map color-coding the Old City of Jerusalem: Israeli sovereignty on this street, Palestinian sovereignty on that, like the delirious maps drawn in London and Paris back in the early 20th century that burden the Middle East and Africa to this day. Clinton coerced Ehud Barak, then prime minister of Israel, to accept his map and make other concessions. He got nothing out of the Palestinians.
OK. So now what? According to the JP, "even the most moderate Palestinians now assume that future discussions will start where Clinton left off." Does Obama have a better plan?
Marty Peretz, an avowed Obama supporter and a principle character in the previously mentioned Robert Malley fracas offers this requirement on the Israeli side.
First: Is Israel truly ready to make the concessions necessary to guarantee that a Palestinian state will be more than a "Potemkin village"--a façade without depth or substance?
To which Obama replies...
"I'm confident that Israel is ready and willing to make some of these concessions if they have the confidence that the Palestinians can enforce an agreement."
Which leads back to the JP story that elaborates on the Second question, "whether any agreement negotiated with Palestinian leaders can be enforced on the Palestinian people.
Obama's answer, and the right one: You deal with the official Palestinian leadership, which is willing to deal, but you pressure it to take action on other fronts that will bring the people back from Hamas. We "have to make sure that Abbas and Fayad and those that are controlling the West Bank still actually start delivering something tangible that is benefiting the lives of Palestinians in the West Bank, that they are ridding [their party] Fatah of the corruption that has been endemic, and are put in a stronger position politically so Hamas is not dictating the terms of Palestinian negotiations but the moderates in the Palestinian camp are dictating what the Palestinian people are willing to go along with."
It is impossible to know where this will end up but in the context of the Primary contest Obama seems to be maintaining his balancing act. Exit polls show Jewish voters trending toward Hillary Clinton but in Maryland, the ratio was only 3 to 2 against Obama. On this issue that's not half bad.
Jeffrey Bader: China
Formerly President Clinton’s National Security Council Asia specialist and now head of Brookings’s China center.
Maj. Gen. J. (Jonathan) Scott Gration: Africa
Gration is a 32-year Air Force veteran and now CEO of Africa anti-poverty effort Millennium Villages. He is also a former director of strategy for U.S. European Command and was the military officer assigned to accompany Obama on the senator's Africa trip.
Mark Brzezinski: Southern Europe
President Clinton’s National Security Council Southeast Europe specialist and now a partner at law firm McGuireWoods.
Gregory B. Craig, State Department director of policy planning under President Clinton and now a partner at law firm Williams & Connolly, foreign policy adviser
Roger W. Cressey, former National Security Council counterterrorism staffer and now Good Harbor Consulting president and NBC News consultant, has advised Obama but says not exclusive
Ivo H. Daalder, National Security Council director for European affairs during President Clinton’s administration and now a Brookings senior fellow, foreign policy adviser
Philip H. Gordon, President Clinton’s National Security Council staffer for Europe and now a Brookings senior fellow, national security adviser
James M. Ludes, former defense and foreign policy adviser to Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and now executive director of the American Security Project, national security adviser
Merrill A. McPeak: National Security Adviser
Gen. Merrill A. ("Tony") McPeak: , former Air Force chief of staff and now a business consultant. For what it's worth, McPeak has been accused of backing the occupation and repression of East Timor.
Denis McDonough, Center for American Progress senior fellow and former policy adviser to then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, foreign policy coordinator
Bruce O. Riedel, former CIA officer and National Security Council staffer for Near East and Asian affairs and now a Brookings senior fellow, national security adviser
Mona Sutphen, former aide to President Clinton’s National Security adviser Samuel R. Berger and to United Nations ambassador Bill Richardson and now managing director of business consultancy Stonebridge, national security adviser
Economic Policy: Derailing the Straight-Talk Express
Economics should be the policy area where McCain is weakest. He has publicly confessed to a lack of understanding although he made claims to a newfound love of economic policy during the GOP debates. And of course, Obama is already pummeling McCain on his "I was against tax cuts before I was for them" position.
Austan Goolsbee: Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Goolsbee has argued that taxpayers with simple finances should be allowed to forgo tax returns and leave tax computation to the IRS. He first met Obama, then a lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, in the faculty social world.
In a column last March in the New York Times, Goolsbee disputed whether "subprime lending was the leading cause of foreclosure problems," touted its benefits for credit-poor minority borrowers and warned that "regulators should be mindful of the potential downside in tightening [the mortgage market] too much." In October, no less a conservative luminary than George Will devoted a whole column in the Washington Post to saluting Goolsbee's "nuanced understanding" of economic issues.
Goolsbee's thoughts on free trade may be alarming to some protectionists in the party. He says globalization is responsible for "a small fraction" of today's income disparities.
"60 to 70 percent of the economy faces virtually no international competition." America's 18.5 million government employees have little to fear from free trade; so do auto mechanics, dentists and many others.
Jeffrey Lieberman: Tax
He is a Harvard professor and former member of Clinton White House Council of Economic Advisers. Lieberman's research has focused on role of earned income tax credit in moving people from welfare to work.
Dan Tarullo: International Trade
International trade expert, Georgetown law professor and former Bill Clinton economic adviser.
Karen Kornbluh: Social Security
Another former Rubin aide. Kornbluh has written of the need to update government benefits such as Social Security and private employee benefits to take account of the country's shift toward two-income families. It is a theme Obama included in his book "The Audacity of Hope" and frequently sounds on the campaign trail.
David Cutler: Health
Health economist, Harvard professor and member of Clinton White House Council of Economic Advisers, Cutler has been an advocate of tying health-care provider reimbursements to medical performance.
Much has been written about the nuances of difference between Clinton's and Obama's Health Care plans and the subject has been a centerpiece of their debates. According to Robert Kuttner, veteran economics and financial journalist and founder and co-editor of the American Prospect magazine both plans that are really variations on a plan designed by Jacob Hacker of Yale University, which is an attempt to get to universal coverage without having national health insurance.
"It’s not bad, if you can’t have the first best, which is national health insurance. The idea is that if you have employer-provided coverage, and you like it, and it’s decent, you get to keep it. If you don’t have affordable coverage, the government will subsidize you to get coverage that’s as good as the coverage that members of Congress get."
Update: PLease click here to connect to an excellent diary on David Cutler's ideas by Kid Oakland.
Legal Policy: No Room For Compromise
This is the area where I am most concerned. Not from a Policy point of view but rather because of the damage to the Rule of Law that must be undone. From Homeland Security to rendition to torture to FISA to judges...
...it's hard to know where to begin. I advise this bunch to fasten their seatbelts. It's going to be a rough ride.
Cass Sunstein and Laurence Tribe: Legal Policy Advisors
University of Chicago law professor Cass Sunstein and Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe, two of the nation's leading liberal legal scholars, have relationships with Obama respectively dating back to the University of Chicago faculty lounges and Obama's days at Harvard Law School.
Eric Holder: Legal Policy Advisor
Former Clinton deputy attorney general.
Martha Minow:
Harvard Law Professor
Neal Katyal:
Harvard Law Professor
Jennifer Chacón, Bill Ong Hing, and Kevin Johnson: Immigration
UC Davis Professors of Law and Immigration Law Scholars Jennifer Chacón, Bill Ong Hing, and Kevin Johnson have been named to Presidential Candidate and U.S. Senator Barack Obama's Immigration Policy Group. They will assist in formulating immigration law and policy positions for the Obama campaign.
Specialists in immigration law, Professors Chacón, Hing, and Johnson are the editors of ImmigrationProf Blog, a website that focuses on immigration and provides regularly updated permanent resources and links and daily news and information of interest to law professors in their scholarship and teaching. The site is included in the U.S. Library of Congress historic collections of Internet materials related to Legal Blogs.
Wow! You actually made it to the end. Thanks for reading. Please stay to offer comments and suggestions.
References:
Chicago Tribune
Obama's Policy Team
By Mike Dorning
Sept 17, 2007
Foreign Policy In Focus
Behind Obama and Clinton
By Stephen Zunes
Feb 4, 2008
The Nation
The Democratic Foreign Policy Wars
By Ari Berman
Jan 3, 2008
The Globe and Mail
Can Obama Hit a Curve Ball
By John Ibbitson
Feb 15, 2008
Update: Education Policy Advisor is Linda Darling-Hamilton from Standford University. LDH is already drawing flak here and defends herself here. Thanks to teacherken for the catch.