As Al Franken's lead in the DFL endorsement race appears to be widening and as he pulls even with Norm Coleman, Norm has made a new and interesting strategic move blunder. As readers know or may not know, I've endorsed Al (read more here).
-- cross-posted from mnblue.com, home of the Norm Coleman Weasel Meter --
Several polls taken over the last few weeks show interesting trends. It's a statistical dead heat between Al and Norm. Al leads 43-40 in the first poll and Norm leads 47-46 in the latest KSTP poll. This is great news this far out. Even better for Al is numbers from the latest poll that show Norm beating Mike Ciresi 51-40 and Jack 58-30. Just to be fair, even Jack's 28% deficit has been overcome in other Senate races -- Both Senators Tester and Webb had huge deficits as late as May.
Now consider in light of Franken's ever-increasing strength whether or not it is sheer madness for Norm to talk up John McCain in Minnesota. Norm now claims that McCain's candidacy will give him coattails. I think McCain's candidacy will just add more concrete to Norm's concrete shoes.
St. McCain the Uninspiring
In contrast to Barak Obama who can "sell out" the Target Center in 24 hours (tix were free, but gone in 24 hrs), John McCain is as inspiring as ... well ... instant oatmeal sitting on a counter gone cold since yesterday morning?
If his campaign speeches don't put you to sleep, it's because you just threw up in your mouth. I'm a progressive, so I'm obviously not going to like what he has to say, but for conservatives wanting a candidate to counter the energy of Obama, only Grampa Fred was less inspiring.
Norm is not a politician who will boldly strike out on his own. He is a political surfer if you will pardon the lurch into the realm of tenuous metaphor. He saw the Newt Gingrich "Contract on America" wave of the 90s and switched teams to ride a bigger wave. He's poll-driven, even sometimes it seems as if he changes course when the breezes change. He jumped on the Rudy Giuliani wave when it looked good, but it all but disappeared ... well ... was there ever really much to the Giuliani campaign other than "noun + verb and 9/11"? Now he's hitching his hopes to John McCain.
I've argued that they are perfect for each other.
So Norm switched from front-runner to front-runner and is anyone surprised? He switched from a man who placed NYC's emergency management center in WTC7 building despite many warnings from his advisors to a man who sing's "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran." He switched from a candidate legendary for his petty resentments to a man legendary for his mendacity. He switched from a a man whose campaign theme was "noun, verb and 9/11" to a man who named his campaign bus the "Straight Talk Express" yet stretches the facts beyond any plausibility on a regular basis.
Actually, McCain probably is a better match. Both men will say anything to win an election. Both men regularly contradict previous statements they've made. Both men state some amazingly laughable lies and expect people to believe them. Here's a few of McCain's lies. You may seem some parrallels.
(Norm Coleman endorses a liar for President)
But with McCain losing badly in Minnesota, why would Norm even consider adding concrete to his already heavy concrete shoes by tying his fortunes to St. McCain the Uninspiring? There appears that there are plenty of cross-over votes for Obama ... Obama leads McCain in national polling by 8%!
The religious conservatives won't support McCain because they see him as weak on their core issues. The Republicans who oppose the war and/or are opposed to the fiscal irresponsibility of the Republican Party are supporting Ron Paul. There's little chance they would support John McCain as he's been a cheerleader for this war and Bush's credit card fiscal policy. That's 42% of the Republicans who turned out last night. It's safe to say that 40% of the base won't tolerate McCain. Take James Dobson as an example.
The real danger for the Republicans is those who want fiscal responsibility and/or the US out of Iraq who would be willing to cross over and vote for a Democrat because they see McCain, who looks more than likely to be the nominee, as hopeless on these issues. The other possible danger is the possibility of a third party conservative candidate to run and splinter an already disintegrating Republican Party.
(Coleman and Pawlenty watch McCain go down in smoke in MN)
It could also be that Norm simply doesn't have much to run on. The economy has sucked for a long time for many Minnesotans and its only getting worse under Bush. We're the workingest state, remember? The occupation of Iraq continues without an end in sight and absolutely no political progress. McCain wants us there for 100 years ... yup ... that's popular with Minnesotans ... NOT. The healthcare crisis is only worsening under the Bush Administration. And finally, the mortgage foreclosure crisis is not just going to affect thousands upon thousands of Minnesotans, it's also affecting the economy.
Al Franken's lead
Contrast Norm's flailing about for anything to run on with Al Franken's consolidating his lead. His grassroots efforts have gotten him in front of thousands and thousands of people. Judging by the polling numbers, way more than Mike Ciresi. Mike may even be trailing Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer in the delegate count if the unscientific straw poll from caucus night is any indicator. Jack may even give Al a run for it at the convention.
The truth about the race as from my perspective is that we have a well-known progressive figure reaching out to DFL voters across the state and building a campaign the correct way. Many progressives know Al from Air American where he led the charge against the Bush Administration and their enablers. His books were hilarious and inspiring and DFLers know him for that.
I believe that Al will stand up for what I believe in. He understands the healthcare crisis; he sees the insurance industry as the bad guys. I can forgive him for being wrong on Iraq at the start of the war -- he's certainly right about it now. I also believe that he will stand up for our constitutional rights though I admit he'll have an easier time with a Democratic President leading the nation. Finally, I want a quick and sardonic wit representing Minnesota in the Senate.
-- cross-posted from mnblue.com, home of the Norm Coleman Weasel Meter --