ARG has bad track record
The purpose of this diary is to point out just how bad ARG is. For you Obama supporters that may be discouraged by the latest ARG poll, don't let up. Keep working, keep phoning, keep telling your family and friend to get out and vote for OBAMA!!
Perhaps ARG may be right about Wisconsin but their track record, however, isn't all that great. They have Huckabee going from 4% to 42% within one week.
If you look at their final polls for each of the following races, they clearly have not had a good track record this year:
CONNECTICUTT:
Final ARG: C-48%, O-35%
Final Result: O-51%, C-47%
IOWA:
Final ARG: C-34%, O-25%, E-24%
Final Result: O-38%, E-30%, C-29%
DELAWARE:
Final ARG: C-44%, O-42%
Final Result: O-53%, C-42%
ILLINOIS:
Final ARG: O-51%, C-40%
Final Result: O-65%, C-32%
SOUTH CAROLINA:
Final ARG: O-39%, C-36%, E-22%
Final Result: O-55%, C-28%, E-17%
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Final ARG: O-40%, C-31%
Final Result: C-39%, O-36%
FLORIDA:
Final ARG: C-57%, O-27%
Final Result: C-50%, O-33%
VIRGINIA:
Final ARG: O-57%, C-40%
Final Result: O-63%, C-34%
.
These are results that I would consider to be completely off. There were a few states in which they they were reasonably close such as MD, TN, and CA.
In addition, I didn't want add in more confusing but I did an average of all final primary polls for Obama and compared them to final results. If my calculations are correct, then he out performs final primary by an average of 11 percentage points. It is much higher for caucuses. The only states in which he did worse than the final primary poll results were New Hampshire and California.
What should we take from all this?
While ARG is certainly questionable and is going against the grain of the other polls so far, we still should take ARG's word and WORK LIKE WE ARE UNDERDOGS!!!