While nothing shocks me anymore about Iraq, this bit of news did take me by surprise today. I wasn’t even aware of this so-called pact Sadr made with Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) back on October 6 of last year, and I usually go out of my way to monitor the situation over there pretty close.
My oversight notwithstanding, this could be really bad news for Iraq... and our troops.
"The agreement between the Sadrists and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) has failed and is cancelled," Nassar al-Rubaie, spokesman for the Sadr bloc in parliament, told AFP.
The two groups, which have clashed repeatedly in the past as each sought control of Iraq's majority Shiite community, signed a pact last October 6 aimed at ending the violence between their two militias.
Tensions, last year in the town of Diwaniyah (180 kilometers (110 miles) south of Baghdad) between the SIIC and Sadr’s Mahdi Army had prompted the attempt at reconciliation.
From Yahoo! News
Dozens of Sadrists had been rounded up in operations led by the Iraqi security forces supported by US troops following confrontations between the rival militiamen during the second half of 2007.
Part of the deal was that joint committees be set up with provincial branches to keep order between rival supporters, but according to Rubaie this has not been done.
"Committees should have been created to resolve security problems in all the provinces," he said. "But they have not been implemented and this agreement is just a facade. It has not been activated."
Competition between the two Shiite factions has often been violent, with a number of officials on either side assassinated.
Since British troops pulled out of Basra, a concerted effort for control has been going on there and the surrounding areas, involving an array of sects and tribes of southern Iraq. The region is at stake. In particular, the struggle for control of the local government in Basra is the heaviest. The traditional blood-feud between the two movements is only likely to increase ahead of provincial elections scheduled for October 1, 2008.
The SIIC has close links with Iran, and its chief Abdel Aziz al-Hakim often visits Tehran.
He is also welcomed in Washington, where he is regarded as a key player on the Iraqi political scene.
The Sadrist movement touts itself as a defender of the Arab identity of Iraq's Shiite community, and its young chief was long regarded as a bete noir of US troops in Iraq.
However, he declared a six-month ceasefire last August and has since been frequently praised by US commanders for having helped to reduce the levels of violence across Iraq.
Middle East expert and President of the Global Americana Institute Professor Juan Cole is skeptical. His take on the situation is on his blog Informed Comment:
It is awfully suspicious that as soon as a firm date was set for new provincial elections in Iraq (October 1), the truce broke down between the paramilitary of Muqtada al-Sadr and that of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.
(snip)
There is a good chance of the Sadrists taking much of the south in the provincial elections if they are fair, and Muqtada may not want to be bound by agreements with a party that he will seek to toss out of office. ISCI (SIIC) now has Diyala, Baghdad, Hilla, Qadisiyah (Diwaniyah), Najaf, Karbala, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna. Maysan with its capital at Amara is controlled by the Sadrists. The southern oil province of Basra is controlled by the Islamic Virtue Party, an offshoot of the Sadr Movement that rejects Muqtada in favor of Ayatollah Muhammad Ya`qubi.
Here’s a few links to [on the ground] Iraq news you won’t see on CNN:
• Azzaman.com (Arabic)
• Iraqi News
• EINNEWS.com (free registration required)
• Electronic Iraq
• Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
It’s difficult to predict what happens in Iraq from here out. But Sadr and Hakim have been heated rivals for years and they’re both backed up by sizeable militias. If they begin targeting each other at the same time as the Sunni Awakening Council is battling within themselves and with Iraqi police forces -- it’s going to spread -- our troops will have to get involved, and then all bets are off.
Here’s the link to my diary last Friday on the Sunni Awakening Councils growing restiveness:
New Force to Reckon with in Iraq
Be prepared for another "surge" this summer.
Peace