In this diary I do not seek to debate whether the creation of Israel was a good idea. You will not find any moral indignation about past Israeli (changed from Jewish. Israeli aggression does not equate to jewish aggression) aggression against its Arab neighbors. You most certainly will not read any anti-semitism or bigotry.
I seek in the diary an unbiased calculus for why the United States should end our alliance with Israel and side with the Arab people. It may be hard to even fathom such a revolutionary shift in US foreign policy, but the shift would benefit the United States in innumerable ways.
There are two sections one dealing with the costs of war in the Middle-East and whether we need to worry about running out of oil in the near future. The other section dealing with why we should end our alliance with Israel.
Section 1: Boring details about war costs and oil supply.
Oil/Natural Gas: The price of losing these two resources means poverty and death. Can the United States take these resources through force? The answer may surprise you.
As of November 8, 2007 Congress provided a total of $626 billion for the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and enhanced security. In February 2007, DOD submitted both a baseline FY2008 budget request for $481.4 billion and a separate emergency request for war costs for $141.7 billion.
If troops levels fall to 75k troops by 2013, Congress will need to spend another 1.5 trillion dollars to maintain operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and enhanced security. If the troop level falls to 30,000, Congress will need to spend another 570 Billion dollars on the wars alone by 2010.
Once you add the costs of strengthening the rest of our military not in conflict zones, maintaining our bases around the world and security, just to secure Iraq and Afghanistan and maintain our military would amount to...well I'm not sure what our GDP and economy will look like by 2010-2013. American GDP for this last year was 13.13 trillion dollars.
It seems clear to me that the United States could, despite what naysayers believe, maintain a healthy troop level in both Iraq and Afghanistan indefinitely. As long as the economy remains strong and the situation doesn't deteriorate (two major ifs!!).
The catch: Is it possible to include another middle-eastern country into the mix? Could the United States afford to occupy three nations? four? five?
The short answer is no. Since I don't mean for this diary to be a cost-benefit analysis on war-making i'll jsut make that statement. If necessary I will go into more detail in another diary tomorrow explaining why three, four, five, x, nations would not be economically feasible for the United States to maintain.
Given a choice between no gas/oil or war I believe the United States must choose war. Are we there yet though?
President Dick Cheney in a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney said:
By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a
three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That
means by 2010 we will need an additional 50 million barrels per day.
Cheney's assessment is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years, if it hasn't already.
Now for some good news: Daniel Yergin:
Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase. Such growth over the next few years would relieve the current pressure on supply and demand.
Where will this growth come from? It is pretty evenly divided between non-OPEC and OPEC. The largest non-OPEC growth is projected for Canada, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Angola and Russia. In the OPEC countries, significant growth is expected to occur in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya, among others. Our estimate for growth in Iraq is quite modest -- only 1 million barrels a day -- reflecting the high degree of uncertainty there. In the forecast, the United States remains almost level, with development in the deep-water areas of the Gulf of Mexico compensating for declines elsewhere.
Quick summation: Don't panic we're not running out of oil yet. We don't need to occupy Middle-Eastern nations for oil.
OK NOW FOR THE GOOD STUFF!
Section 2: Ending our relationship with Israel.
If we agree that the US cannot sustain continual occupation of more than 2 or 3 nations (depends on size, stability, economy etc.), and also agree that we need not engage in war for oil and gas (yet) then our foreign policy regarding Israel is masochistic.
A quick example why:Hugo Chavez recently threatened to cut off oilsupply from Venezuela to the United States. Of course such a move would be disastrous for our economy. In fact, in such a scenario war may be preferable (not morally preferable but economically) then to suffer the loss of oil from Venezuela.
Instead of using our great propaganda machine to turn the leaders of the world's oil supply into villains, we should ally ourselves closely with them and their economies. A smart example is our relationship with the royal family of Saudi Arabia.
As long as the United States continues its preferential treatment towards Israel, however, we can never be allies with the Iraqi people, Persians, Palestinians living throughout the Middle-East etc. If it is cheaper to buy the natural resources of oil/gas then to take control of them by force we must immediately cease of relationship with Israel.
Some will say this is immoral. No more immoral than killing hundreds of thousands in a war of aggression for our own benefit. Israel has no fealty towards the United States. They do not pay taxes to the people neither do they protect us militarily. In fact it is quite the opposite.
As it stands now we have alienated the entire Arab world, given billions or dollars, and the most advanced military secrets to the nation of Israel. Our reward is higher energy prices and war.
There are many, many, many, many, many, moral reasons to wish that the United States cease its alliance with Israel. But the best argument (the one most people seem to care about) is that its bad for us economically.
I await discussion of this topic. I am not an anti-Semite. I am not Arab (mixed race black and white). I sincerely believe that we would benefit far greater if we gave the Arab world honey and not vinegar.
For what its worth we would need to fear terrorism less if we didn't need to physically occupy the Arab nations. Soft power is the greatest power. Sun Tzu should have written that.