Make of this what you will: The Gallup daily tracking poll shows a sizable overnight hit for Obama. A large weekend lead has fallen to a 46-45 Obama lead.
Gallup's assessment:
In Monday night's interviewing, Clinton's percentage of the vote of national voters was higher than Obama's, but there has been fluidity in the nightly tracking numbers over the past several days as Democrats nationally process the intense, often heated, nature of the campaign. Monday's news coverage of the Democratic campaign was replete with a focus on the Clinton campaign's charges that Obama had plagiarized material from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and other negative attacks on Obama by the Clinton campaign. It is unclear which, if any, of these factors could be responsible for changes in the candidates' standing.
The Deval Patrick story led every newscast last night--while much of the coverage was favorable to Obama (ABC News, for example, pointed out that Clinton had ripped off Edwards and Obama lines), everyone saw the Patrick and Obama footage back to back. Today, Clinton surrogates are smiling and hitting the "just words" story on basically every media hit.
No poll, save for ARG, showed Obama losing Wisconsin. But no poll showed him winning by more than high single digits (without factoring in independents and high turnout). Could this cost Obama Wisconsin or Hawaii?
UPDATE: For what it's worth, the political futures markets show absolutely no change in Hillary trades from the Patrick story. Rassmussen, the other daily tracker, also shows zero poll movement. I'm just reporting Gallup's own take.