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I'm a Wisconsin native.  Born and bred until I moved away to college in 1979.  I'm very proud of my home state's progressive tradition, from Fightin' Bob LaFollette to Senator Bill Proxmire to Gov. Lee Dreyfus (Republican governor who signed one of the first statewide gay and lesbian anti-discrimination bills, more than 25 years ago) to my grandfather, former mayor of Racine.  Wisconsin politics is in my blood, you might say.

So I follow the state's votes very, very closely.  I'm a numbers freak.  German, Virgo, gay accountant.  Can you say anal?

So anyway, I was a tad nervous about today's vote in the Badger State.  Not really for my candidate (I'm a former Edwards supporter, switched and voted for Obama in the CA primary.)  So if not for my candidate, why was I skittish?  Follow me after the jump and I'll give you some numbers that should make every Democrat proud today.

I was nervous because I know that Wisconsin, despite all of its progressive tradition, also has a tendency to be a very, very split vote when comparing Democratic to Republican totals in presidential elections.  So I was keen on how big the Democratic turnout would be vs. the Republican turnout.  I wanted to get a clue as to whether Wisconsin was trending red or blue, if you will.

For instance.  In 2000, Gore carried Wisconsin by 0.22%.  Look at that number again...zero point two two.  Too close for my blood, but that is where the state has been in the last two presidential elections.  Don't believe me?  Take a look at  2004.  Wisconsin was the single closest state that Kerry won.  0.38% margin of victory.

So I think it is worth looking at turnout tonight in Wisconsin, to get a clue as to whether there has been any perceptible movement.

Just take a look at this!

Total Democratic popular vote today:  1.1 million, in a state with a total population of 5.6 million souls, and that isn't just adults...that's total population.

Total Republican turnout today:395,000.  That's it.

Oh yes, I know, McCain has it sewn up, they weren't motivated, blah, blah, blah.

Me?  I'm taking that 700,000 vote difference in my homestate, and I'm gonna sleep a bit better on that tonight.

Well done, Wisconsin!  Forward!

Originally posted to Are you paying attention? on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:06 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Obama and Clinton both received more votes (6+ / 0-)

    Than the entire Republican slate combined

  •  Thank ye (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    outragedinSF

    I'm a Virgo detail addict too...so I liked these numbers.

    •  Editing is my friend (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      exNYinTX, One Pissed Off Liberal

      I was going to go into county by county analysis showing why I believed Barack was behind this surge...but I think that's stating the obvious.  When you look at the biggest county differentials, besides Dane and Milwaukee, it was the counties with UW campuses...Eau Claire, La Crosse, Kenosha, etc.  Truly inspiring!

      "A liberal is a man or a woman or a child who looks forward to a better day, a more tranquil night, and a bright, infinite future." - Leonard Bernstein

      by outragedinSF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:16:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2000 Wisconsin Primary Turnout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    outragedinSF

    was 866,965 combined for both parties.  That's pretty impressive, even though it's a state that takes turnout seriously.

    NetrootNews coming soon!

    by ksh01 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:15:13 PM PST

  •  100,000 more votes (0+ / 0-)

    I haven't looked at the raw vote totals in a bit but I was struck earlier that Obama was beating McCain by 100,000 votes and Hillary was beating Huckabee by another 100,000 votes!

    Turn the Mountain West blue! Support Gary Trauner for Wyoming's only House seat!

    by kainah on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:16:26 PM PST

  •  We sure saw it in my district! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    outragedinSF

    Small town, half an hour outside Madison.

    860 Dems, 240 Reps.

    Absolutely unbelievable.  Maybe you'd see that on the isthmus in Madison, but here it is simply astonishing.  The big story of the night is:  crossover voters for obama.

    •  Glad to hear it! (0+ / 0-)

      And I agree with you.  Obama won the vast majority of counties, which shocked me...even up north.   In California, the pattern was that conservative counties (read: away from the coast) went for Clinton, and Obama only won the "expected" counties...San Francisco, Alameda, Los Angeles, etc.   But in Wisconsin today, the overwhelming majority of counties ALL went to Obama.  You can only do that with serious crossover voting in steadfastly Republican counties.

      "A liberal is a man or a woman or a child who looks forward to a better day, a more tranquil night, and a bright, infinite future." - Leonard Bernstein

      by outragedinSF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:24:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I should clarify (0+ / 0-)

        Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout, even in normally Republican counties.  Therefore, it must have been crossover votes...despite low Republican turnout.

        "A liberal is a man or a woman or a child who looks forward to a better day, a more tranquil night, and a bright, infinite future." - Leonard Bernstein

        by outragedinSF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:29:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I would amend my earlier comment (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          outragedinSF

          The big news tonight was not only sincere crossover voters but NEW voters. As noted below, out of the 1100 voters in my precinct, some 400 came from newly registered voters.  That's amazing.  Even the pollworkers were astonished. They had to run out to get eight times as many registration forms as they expected to use.

    •  The big story ... (0+ / 0-)

      of the night might be ...

       

      crossover voters for obama.

      The really big story of November will be whether they actually were voting for him, or voting in the Democratic primary to defeat the candidate they most wanted to defeat, and will switch back to GOP in the GE.

      After all, 'we' did keep Romney afloat in MI, right?
      With no intention of voting for him in the GE.

      In Wisconsin, among actual registered Democratic party voters, Hillary still got the most votes.

      So, folks not really a part of the party are picking the nominee.  This is a good thing?

      "Hillary Hate" is a disease that will not be cured until after the primaries.

      by emsprater on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:27:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cite? (0+ / 0-)

        How did you discern the actual Democratic registration vote vs. the crossover vote, and what makes you believe those votes weren't sincere?

        "A liberal is a man or a woman or a child who looks forward to a better day, a more tranquil night, and a bright, infinite future." - Leonard Bernstein

        by outragedinSF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:31:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  No problem (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        outragedinSF, Cassandra Waites

        That's Wisconsin.  That's why I am so damn proud of my state tonight.  Yes, we have hard core partisans on either side.  But we have a large proportion of sensible progressive centrists who respect independence in their candidates.  That is why Feingold gets elected.  Hell, I don't always agree with the guy, but I value absolutely his integrity and honesty and intelligence, and his willingness to go his own way.

        I should have mentioned.  In my little town, out of a total of 1100 voters, 400 were newly registered.  i don't know the exact breakdown, but thee's no doubt that they came in, registered to vote,and voted Democratic.  Obama is expanding the base, and doing it in ways and places that no other presidential candidate has ever done in my memory (except maybe Reagan on the other side).

        There may well be a few voters who actually do the mythical cross-over-to-elect-a-weaker-opponent thing.  That's a strawman.  I know my town.  I know that hardly anyone here did that.  They stayed over there and voted for Huckabee (McCain-138 Huckabee-90).

      •  Actually, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        outragedinSF, strobusguy

        According to the AP exit polls, Obama won registered Democratic Party voters 53%-46%.

  •  Here's why it matters. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    outragedinSF

    In the 2004 GE, Dubya got under 1.5 million votes.  One has to assume that the Republicans can't out-do that this time.  So if the Democrats can hold the 1.1 million voters from the primary, and assuming the Republicans hold their 400,000 primary voters, then Dems need just 400,000 of the other 1.5 million voters.  That's under 27%!  Seems like we can paint Wisconsin blue come November.

  •  Lived in Wisconsin when (0+ / 0-)

    I was a kid. Anyone got a pic of Bucky Badger?

    Abolish the Homeland Scrutiny Department.

    by hoplite9 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 03:39:34 AM PST

  •  Is anybody else concerned (0+ / 0-)

    about folks voting on the D side during the primary and switching to R during the general election?  I hope upon hope these are straight up votes!

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