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Well, aside from a curious SurveyUSA poll out of the state of Florida late last week (one which was rebutted by a Quinnipiac poll released earlier in the week), it appears that the electability argument for the Democrats is now a done deal.

The final nail...while both Democrats presently hold a lead over John McCain in Hillary Clinton's home state of New York, Barack Obama has a lead that is TEN POINTS higher than that of Hillary.

In New York. Plus...look here! CNN has polled Texas for the general with a surprising result. Follow me....

First, the New York numbers, courtesy of SUSA:

NEW YORK (Polled by SurveyUSA 2/15 to 2/17)

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%, John McCain (R) 41%
Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 36%

NOTE: All surveys were conducted before the NYT story on McCain

There you have it. Even in the senator's home state, one which gave her a reasonably substantial win in the Super Tuesday primaries, HRC does not run as strongly in the general as does Senator Obama.

That trend extends to a state thought to be out of reach to the Democrats as well.

TEXAS (Polled by CNN 2/14 to 2/17)

John McCain (R) 55%, Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
John McCain (R) 52%, Barack Obama (D) 44%

Eight points. In what is supposed to be a gimme for the GOP. Not only that, but CNN polled whether or not Texans would be amenable to a "conservative third party candidate". If one appeared on the ballot, the poll shows that Obama would LEAD McCain, 41-37. The third party candidate would get 19%. Clinton would also score a narrow lead in this scenario (38-37-23).

By the way, even in his home state, Bush gets no love. His job approval in Texas is a dismal 41%, with 55% disapproving.

Something to chew on this Thursday morning. I can't imagine that the Clinton campaign can say that New York and Texas don't matter.

Can they?

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:47 AM PST.


Of the Big 5 States (CA, TX, NY, FL, PA), Democrats Will Win:

0%1 votes
0%1 votes
1%3 votes
40%61 votes
45%69 votes
11%17 votes

| 152 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate.... (10+ / 0-)

    Link to the CNN story is here.

    Link to the SurveyUSA poll in New York is here.

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:47:53 AM PST

  •  New York counted from 2/5 until yesterday (4+ / 0-)

    I guess.

    "There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible. But in the end they always fall. Think of it. Always." -- Mahatma Gandhi

    by duha on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:50:18 AM PST

  •  Super Tuesday showed her weakness - she got (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, beltane

    <60% of the vote in New York.  Obama did much better in Illinois by comparison.</p>

    I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. - Major General Smedley D. Butler, USMC

    by Marinesquire on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:53:45 AM PST

  •  re (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    If she can't even lead Obama in NY....

    Almost over...almost over...

    "Hillary and Steve Holt lost even more primaries on Tuesday." - Steve Holt

    by cookiesandmilk on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:54:46 AM PST

  •  Great Website For Matchup Polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Showing Obama leading overall in the matchup vs. McCain.  Senator Clinton, not so much.

    Note that this website doesn't always have the most recent polls (like the NY one above), and that some of the state polling is quite old (like a January 21 poll showing Obama losing to McCain in Massachusetts).

    But I'd be happy to start the campaign on this note, particularly if McCain gets stuck with scandal and $$ problems.

    "Supposing truth is a woman -- what then?" -- Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil

    by phaedrus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:54:47 AM PST

  •  Illinois is bigger than Pennsylvania at this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, beltane


    •  Not In Terms Of Electoral Votes... (0+ / 0-)

      They are tied. I picked PA because, unlike IL, it is not a foregone conclusion.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:24:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I said 4... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KayCeSF, Steve Singiser, beltane

    But only if its Bararck.

    kakistocracy - Elections have consequences, but capitulation has its price.

    by RichM on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:59:41 AM PST

  •  Thanks Steve, and this Hillary supporter can see (5+ / 0-)

    that the numbers are clear: Obama, for the time being, is the best bet for November, so it is clearly in the best interest of the party that he is the nominee.

    I still have my reservations about what happens after he is inaugurated, but first things first: Just win.

    Steve, your diaries are the only ones around here I can really stomach anymore, FWIW. Thanks again.

    •  Just Tryin' To Play It Straight.... (0+ / 0-)

      I am in kind of a unique position, Jim. I have been an Edwards supporter since 2003 (and, really, well before that). From the beginning, I have seen this year's field as an embarrassment of riches. It is hard for me to work up a lot of animus for ANY of them (although I really think Mark Penn has hurt Clinton with his sporadic popping-off on the race).

      When the "big three" pulled away from the field, I wound up donating money to all three of them.

      Ironically, the guy that eventually got my vote (Obama...Edwards was out by then) is the one who has gotten the LEAST amount of my cash. Though I suspect that will change before long.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:33:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  forget florida (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    It`s not winnable right now because of the cuban population voting republican. I still think Obama will lose all the southern states, he will just make  it  a little closer than usual.
    Still I can`t see McCain beating him in any other part of the country.

    •  I disagree. (3+ / 0-)

      The general election polls currently have Obama leading McCain in Virginia, and the state's recent election history supports the idea Democrats are viable there. For various reasons including the delegate situation, I think Florida is less likely a pickup than Virginia, but at the same time we can't discount its recent history, either: Clinton won it in 1996, Gore won for all intents and purposes a narrow victory there in 2000, and Bush poured billions of dollars in hurricane response there in the last month of the 2004 election to pad his margin there then. In the end, I think Obama will be a stronger candidate than Gore or Kerry, and certainly much more likely to pull wavering independents and Republicans.

      I'm also curious as to the other southern states. If it turns into an Obama blow-out, I would expect to see the upper southern tier--North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas--become real battlegrounds.

  •  Let's be fair now... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    the same arguments hold as after Super Tuesday.  Either Obama or Clinton would win New York handily.  Not that the voters aren't important -- but it's not a distinguishable difference.

    It's kind of embarassing, that's all.  However, there are a lot of states where there IS a tangible difference.

    In selecting a president, I favor foresight over hindsight.

    by Rorgg on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:04:49 AM PST

    •  The Point Is Not That... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      One candidate will win while the other may not. They will both carry New York, I am quite certain.

      HOWEVER, it is notable that the home-state senator is in a marginally less advantageous position than the guy from out-of-state.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:30:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  TODAY! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    And Dukakis is KICKING ASS!

    •  Dukakis Was A Painfully Bad... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      General election candidate. There is little reason to think Obama will be the same.

      Plus, George Bush the elder was running as the heir apparent to someone who, while draped in scandal his last few years, was still substantially more popular than Mister 19% is right now.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:26:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Three (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Obama (and let's get this straight: Obama IS GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE) will win California, New York, and Pennsylvania.  Florida is a less promising target than Ohio, especially if Jeb Bush or Charlie Crist is McCain's VP nominee.  Texas is going to be a hard nut to crack, but we've heard for a while that someday the diversity of Texas will catch up with the Republicans and bite them in the ass.  Now would be a good time for that to happen.

    •  I Voted Three As Well, But.... (0+ / 0-)

      I continue to be surprised by how close Texas is. There have been several polls that have it in the 5-12 point range over the past few months.

      I think that one SUSA Florida poll (which had McCain up HUGE over Obama) might have been an outlier, because no one else has had it that wide (the same week, Quinnipiac had it at two points, and earlier polls have even shown Obama LEADING there).

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:28:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Of those 5 states... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, TheUnknown285

    Only New York and California are on lock.  Obama and Clinton would easily take these two.

    Florida's got that huge Cuban-American population who will not support any candidate who talks about progressive Cuban-American issues (such as visitation, limiting/ceasing the embargo, and sending monies to family).  The only one there is Obama, talking about improving relations.  That, and the heavy 65+ population down here (especially in communities like Fort Myers, Port St. Lucie, Naples, Clearwater, West Palm Beach, The Villages, Clermont, and Winter name a few).  I don't see a Democrat winning in Florida for another generation, to be honest.

    Texas is different in demographic makeup, but the outcome would be the same in November--it'd remain a red state, maybe moving over to the purple end, but still red.  It could be a potential battleground state if Obama ran, but I seriously doubt it.  Turnout would be the key here--and that's too far off into the future to tell now.  We'll know more after the primary in March.

    Pennsylvania...who know?  Might be a proper swing state for either Democratic candidate.  But I don't know enough about the state to get into it.

    "It's better to vote for what you want, and not get it, than to vote for what you don't want, and get it." Eugene Debs, 1912.

    by cybrestrike on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:27:02 AM PST

  •  Wait a sec (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, TheUnknown285

    didn't NY matter because it was a state we HAVE to win in Nov and so it was important to win in the primary, but all this proves is either dem could win thus, once again, making the Hillary campaign look like buffoons?

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