Though I'm safely on the O-train, I kind of hope that Hillary Clinton survives March 4th somehow. If she does, that means my own perennially too-late-to-the-game Pennsylvania will be receiving 6 weeks of undivided attention from 2 great candidates.
I haven't seen anyone diary the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, out today. (UPDATE: woops, dansac just posted a diary on it. give him some love.)
Hillary still leads considerably 44% to 32%, but the gap has closed since just last month (C-40%, O-20%). Full details are available at the link. More than 20% of Democratic primary voters still haven't decided, and of those that have, 37% say they could change their minds.
There's a lot of persuading to be done, Senators!
Looking forward to the general, the F&M poll suggests that Pennsylvania is still a swing state (although the last 2 presidential elections, and the 2006 mid-terms, say otherwise). Hillary ties McCain at 46% while McCain edges Obama 44% to 43%.
Another PA poll out today shows why Hillary is still so strong.
Clinton dominates rival Obama among older Democratic voters, according to a statewide Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll. About half aged 45 and older favor her, versus a quarter for Obama. Obama gains strength as voters get younger, leading by 4 percentage points among Democrats aged 30-44, and by double digits among those aged 18-29.
Preferences among other Democratic voting blocs in Pennsylvania line up largely with exit polls from most of the early primary contests, according to the poll, which surveyed 588 registered voters (302 Democrats) from Feb. 9-17. That's not surprising, because Pennsylvania historically is a bellwether state.
Clinton holds a 2-to-1 advantage among women and voters with no college degree. The race is even among men and among voters with college and graduate degrees.
The fact that Pennsylvania is a closed primary with no same-day registrations also favors Clinton.
Clinton will also have some help from that much-written-about 527, American Leadership Project. The person leading the effort to raise the $10 million for ads is Bill Titelman, a Pennsylvania native and powerful lobbyist/fundraiser.
So, might Obama overcome all this in the Keystone State? Well, he has the better organization, at least locally for me.
Obama’s 10 straight primary and caucus victories since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 have convinced many that his campaign is much more comprehensively organized than Clinton’s. Differences are evident in Centre County.
State College financial consultant Greg Stewart, co-chairman of Obama’s volunteer workers in Pennsylvania, has been publicly organizing and campaigning for Obama since at least last May. He said Wednesday the Obama campaign is preparing for April 22 "with the assumption it will be important."
Stewart’s son Michael, a Penn State student, heads an Obama student organization that held an open house Saturday. The group will kick off a voter registration drive in the student union today and has signed up more than 40 students to travel to Ohio next weekend to canvass for Obama.
A student group for Clinton, the Penn State Hillblazers, has convened at least three meetings but has not had an off-campus organization to join forces with. Founder Sean Leonard, a Penn State junior, said Wednesday that no registration drives or canvassing trips are planned.
"Right now we’re holding off on large activities" until after the March 4 primaries, Leonard said. "We’ve been just trying to get organized for that (April 22 primary) but we’re kind of waiting for March 4."
Luse said Wednesday that within the past week she apparently became Clinton’s Centre County campaign coordinator after "I made the mistake of making a phone call to the campaign looking for some information." As a result of the phone call to Clinton’s Pennsylvania headquarters, she said, "I assume that that’s who it’s going to be — me."
That last paragraph is amusing.