It's done. Because of her severely flawed campaign strategy of inevitability and experience, in an election when people are hungry instead for change, Hillary Clinton needed to dispatch Barack Obama no later than Super Tuesday. She didn't. He fought her to a draw on February 5th, he demonstrated tremendous strength across the country, and forced her to muster her resources in the NY/CT/NJ region, in Massachusetts and in California. Even in the big states where she fought and won, her victories were mostly just "holds" of her established advantage. They were defensive wins, allowing Obama to mount significant wins in other states all over the country.
Once we got past February 5th, Clinton's only chance was to keep Obama from posting big wins. She failed. In the ten contests since Super Tuesday, she's lost by an average of 67% to 30%. Even if you take out the territories and the caucus states, looking just at Louisiana, the Potomac Primary and yesterday's contest in Wisconsin, the average is 63% to 35%.
The news from the exit polls is worse. Last Tuesday Obama scored big gains with just about ever demographic. About the only group where Clinton did well was with Democratic women. Tuesday in Wisconsin Obama won almost every single demographic. He tied among white women, who in the earlier states had been giving Clinton large margins. The only group she won was voters over 65 years old.
She's getting outspent by Obama. He's getting great press, her press is awful. And even Bill Clinton knows the end is near:
Even former president Clinton, pressing voters to turn out for his wife's campaign, acknowledged the stakes for her on March 4. "If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she will be the nominee," he told supporters in Beaumont, Tex., according to ABC News. "If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."
Hillary Clinton can not win both Texas and Ohio, certainly not by the huge margins she'd need in order to make up significant ground. The race is over. Wisconsin made a motion that the nominee be Barack Obama. On March 4th, Texas and possibly Ohio will ratify the motion.
So what happens in the next two weeks? If Mark Penn has his way, Clinton will scorch the earth:
When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton meets Senator Barack Obama at a one-on-one debate in Austin on Thursday night, one of her final opportunities to change the course of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, she will again face the challenge that has repeatedly stymied her: how to discredit her popular opponent without hurting herself.
Even now, after a string of defeats, her advisers are divided over how to proceed as they head toward what could be her last stands, in Ohio and Texas on March 4.
Some — led by Mark Penn, her chief strategist — have been pushing Mrs. Clinton to draw sharper and deeper contrasts with Mr. Obama, arguing that she has no other option, campaign officials said.
Others, particularly Mandy Grunwald, her media adviser, have pushed for a less aggressive approach, arguing that attacks would not help Mrs. Clinton’s campaign in an environment in which she is increasingly appearing to struggle, aides said.
There is no option that will lead to a Clinton victory. But there is another option, one that requires Clinton to recognize that the next twelve days could determine her legacy, and much about the future of our country:
The time has come for Hillary Clinton to make a historic announcement, certain to dismay her friends and confound her enemies, demonstrating her undeniable strengths – intelligence, ambition and resolve. Following on her massive Wisconsin primary defeat, she ought to surprise the nation and the world by announcing her decision not to contest Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, accepting Barack Obama as the Democratic presidential nominee in opposition to John McCain.
Though she has been intermittently hostile in her comments on Mr Obama, it should be possible for her to say that she will do whatever she can to prevent a Republican victory in November...
By leaving the field voluntarily, recognising that it is in neither her interest nor the party’s to prolong the contest until the convention, she gains inf¬luence with Mr Obama, putting herself in a position to advise him on his running mate. More importantly, once out of the race, she is free to return to the Senate, adding to her enviable record as an effective member, which no Democrat questions. Given her undeniable gifts, it is possible for her to become the most powerful Democratic party figure in the Senate, resembling but exceeding Lyndon Johnson’s remarkable record in the pre-John Kennedy presidential years.
If Mr Obama is elected in November, she could do for him what Senator Robert Wagner of New York did for Franklin Roosevelt. On healthcare, the environment, minority rights and the economy, she could create a record as memorable as the one Wagner achieved by enacting major social security and old-age pension legislation and being the author of the Labour Act that to this day bears his name. Mrs Clinton, emerging as President Obama’s principal ally in the Senate, could add immeasurably to her stature, guaranteeing a second run for the presidential nomination in 2016 or indeed in 2012 were Mr Obama to lose the 2008 election to McCain, always a possibility. While Wagner, because of his Catholic religion, could never aspire to the presidency in his lifetime, Mrs Clinton could still expect to become America’s first woman president.
I don't believe Clinton should drop out before Texas and Ohio. And since she won't be elected President this time, she'll probably never be president. But the opportunity for Hillary Clinton to become a historic leader of the Senate is real. As I've argued repeatedly, there are numerous and strong parallels between the election of 1932 and how this election is evolving. This would provide Hillary Clinton an opportunity to take advantage of an opportunity to create parallels between 1933 and 2009. After all, winning elections are great, but I doubt anyone is a Democrat because of our victories of 1932. But generations of Americans have looked to the Democratic party to lead our country because of the legacy of the New Deal Congresses and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. 1932 was the opportunity. But 1933 and afterward is what established the greatness of Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal Democrats.
If he wins in November, Barack Obama will probably never be considered as great a president as Franklin Roosevelt. For everyone's sake, let's hope he and the country don't face the challenges FDR and the country faced in 1933. But Hillary Clinton has a chance to be as great a Senator as Lyndon Johnson or Robert Wagner. Let's hope she ignores Mark Penn, runs a dignified and positive campaign for the next twelve days, and then becomes Barack Obama's greatest ally.