In the last four general elections, 19 states have voted Democratic every time, in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. In 2008, these 19 states combine for a total of 248 of the 270 electoral votes needed for a candidate to be elected President in 2008. Additionally, three states, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico have voted Democratic in three of the last four elections. New Hampshire voted Republican in 2000; Iowa and New Mexico voted Republican in 2004. These three states have 16 electoral votes in 2008; however, not all of them are currently solid for Obama. Please note: this posting is not marginalizing Hillary Clinton, it is instead a look at how Barack Obama, the probable Democratic nominee, would fare in a General Election. Follow me below the fold for an in-depth look at how Barack Obama wins the general election.
The states that have been solidly blue in the last four general elections, and their 2008 electoral votes are: CA (55), NY (31), IL (21), PA (21), MI (17), NJ (15), MA (12), WA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), OR (7), CT (7), RI (4), ME (4), HI (4), DE (3), DC (3), and VT (3). Are any of these states in play for McCain against an Obama candidacy? Current polls show statistical dead heats in Oregon and Pennsylvania. All other states for which I could find current polling show Obama with significant leads. It is very unlikely that Oregon would stray from its solid Democratic past. Let’s also leave Pennsylvania’s 21 votes in the Obama column. Four straight elections for the Democratic ticket should mean these votes are safe. Following the votes totals noted above, this gives Obama a somewhat optimistic, but fairly safe 248 electoral votes.
Of the three states which have voted Democratic in three of the last four elections, Iowa (7 votes) is currently O-51%, M-41% in a Survey USA poll. New Hampshire (4 votes) is currently O-49%, M-36%, from Rasmussen. For New Mexico (5 votes) the only poll I could find (Survey USA) shows McCain up 9%, however, the poll is over a month old. However we’ll leave New Mexico out of the Obama camp right now. Iowa and New Hampshire bring Obama to 259.
The following states have voted Democratic in two of the last four general elections: Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Tennessee (11), Louisiana (9), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), and Nevada (5). How do the polls stack up in these states? In Ohio, which voted for Bill Clinton twice, the most recent Rasmussen poll shows a dead heat with O-41%, M-42%. Missouri, is also a toss-up (from Rasmussen) O-40%, M-42%. The other states, all southern, either give McCain a large lead or do not have current polling available but are considered safely Republican by Rasmussen. Nevada, which has voted with the winner in the last seven straight elections, is currently polling O-50%, M-38% (Rasmussen). We’ll leave the toss-up states out of Obama’s vote total for now but add Nevada’s 5 votes for Obama, bringing him to 264, just six votes short of the Promised Land.
Rasmussen considers Tennessee (11), Louisiana (9), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6) and West Virginia (5) to be safely Republican. All of these states voted Democratic only when southerner Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996. However, I don’t think is out of bounds that Louisiana (9 votes) might go Democratic in 2008, especially after Katrina. However, let’s leave these states out of the equation for now. If Louisiana (9 votes) goes Democratic in 2008, Obama has 273. But Obama doesn’t even need Louisiana. He has Colorado.
Colorado (9 votes) which has only voted Democratic in a presidential election once since 1992 (in 1992 for Clinton) currently has polls showing Obama up from 7-10%. Adding Colorado’s 9 votes to Obama brings him to 273, and the inauguration on January 20, 2009.
If Obama can carry the two remaining large states which are currently within the statistical margin of error, Ohio (20) and Missouri (11), he would have a solid 304 electoral votes.
Did I cherry-pick the polls, looking only for the ones that would cast this diary in a good light? Absolutely not. In every case, I used the most recent polling data I could find. Also, in states where I think Obama has an excellent chance, New Mexico (5), Louisiana (9), and Arkansas (6), but for which I could not find recent polling, I left those states out of the Obama count. Add the above three states to 304 and Obama now has 324 votes.
And let’s not toss out the possibility of some additional, although unlikely, pickups. Virginia (13 votes) currently has one poll with Obama up 51%-45% (Survey USA) while another has McCain up 49%-44% (Rasmussen). Georgia (15 votes) went Democratic in 1992. Montana (3 votes) also went Democratic in 1992. Florida (27 votes) voted for Clinton in 1996, and, let’s face, probably went for Gore in 2000. Polls there however currently show McCain with a large lead over Obama. South Carolina (8 votes) with its large African American vote may not be out of the question. Kansas (6 votes) recently elected a Democrat as Governor and a recent poll shows Obama within 6%. In North Carolina (15 votes), McCain leads only 47%-42%. I have not included any GE polling for Texas (34 votes). The only GE polling I found for Texas was so old as to be meaningless. However, looking at the last four elections, the Republican carried Texas by: 1992 – GHW Bush – 40%; Clinton 37%; Perot – 22%. 1996: Dole – 49%, Clinton – 44%, Perot – 7%. 2000 – GW Bush – 59%; Gore – 38%; Nader – 2%. 2004 – Bush – 61%, Kerry – 38%. However, since a Bush from Texas was a candidate in three of these elections, I’m not sure how significant these results are. This certainly does not mean Texas would be impossible for Obama, but it would certainly be a stretch.
Did I make some assumptions? Yes, mainly that Obama would carry every state that Clinton (twice), Gore and Kerry carried in the last four general elections, including the ones where the polling currently shows a toss-up. Other than that, I assigned Obama no state in which he doesn’t currently lead. And with just the few states where Obama currently has a statistically significant lead in the polls, the election swings Democratic in 2008.
What can go wrong, so many things? The Right Wing smear machine, with 527’s in the lead, will be out in full force. Some long lost scandal could find its’ way to Obama. Hillary could go on a scorched earth rant which would increase Obama’s negatives. Obama could make some major mistake. Another significant terror attack on American soil could change things.
But right now, I think it is possible Obama could be looking at a 39 state (plus DC) win, with only Texas, Alaska, Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Oklahoma solid for McCain. Every other state is solid for Obama, leaning to Obama, a toss-up or a potential surprise.
All in all, I wouldn’t want to be John McCain on Election Day.