Survey USA, which has been pretty darn good, comparatively, with their polling this election season, has some numbers out that show, perhaps, the transformative possibility of Obama's nomination...
(more below the fold)
• In Kansas, one of the absolute reddest states out there, McCain leads Hillary by 24 points in the latest head-to-head poll... but Obama trails only by 6 points! I live in Nebraska, so take it from mke how unbelievably startling this number is for Obama. Granted Obama has a little homecourt advantage there because of his mom, but for him to even be in shouting distance this far out bodes well for the Dems and poorly for McCain's campaign.
• In Virginia, again normally a solid red state, Obama LEADS McCain currently by 6 points, while Hillary trails McCain by 3 points.
• Even in New York, Hillary's home state, she leads by a healthy 11 points, but Obama leads McCain by a whopping 21 points!
• And here's an anecdote from Nebraska, another very red state, and the one I live in... In 2006, in Omaha, a young, unknown Democrat named Jim Esch made a nice run at long-time Republican hack Lee Terry for Congress. Esch still lost by about ten points, but that represented a 10-point improvement over the guy who ran against Terry in 2004. Many out here saw it as a hopeful sign that the Democratic party was emerging in what has always been a massively red state. Many thought he would run in 2008 and could very well defeat Terry this time around, which would be a major pick-up for the Dems, Yet, in the Fall, when Hillary looked "inevitable," Esch announced he would not run. Among other reasons, he cited the prospect of having Hillary at the top of the ticket as one of the main reasons he was opting out of the race. He suggested that with Clinton at the top of the ticket, folks like Esch would be hurt down-ticket, particularly in states like Nebraska, because Hillary would mobilize and otherwise demoralized conservative base. Well, Obama-mania came to town a few weeks back and the political landscape has dramatically changed. No one has ever seen anything like the energy, passion and enthusiasm that was unleashed by Obama among Democrats, Independents and even many Republicans who have now switched parties because of Obama. As a result, Esch is now reconsidering his decision and may very well jump back in the race!
• Similarly, former governor Mike Johanns is running for Chuck Hegal's senate seat on the Republican side and until recently, the Dems were going to run an industrial tool, Tony Raimando, a REPUBLICAN industrialist from out state who could not buy his way in on the Republican side, so he switched parties to buy his way into the Democratic race. Many democrats have been howling about Raimondo's move, but there didn;t seem to be anyone else willing to run... until now. Another great young candidate, Scott Kleeb, has decided to join the race. Kleeb has a PhD in History and is in his mid-30s. He nearly beat Adrienne Smith for congress in 2006 in a very red district. It took a special visit from Bush to defeat him. But, again, because of Obama's great success in our state, Kleeb has decided to jump in, sensing that the Obama coattails might be very long, indeed.
My point with all of this is that we already have real data that suggests how transformative Obama's nomination really might be. If Obama can contest, and maybe even win states like Virginia, Kansas and maybe even Nebraska, and if he is polling ahead of Clinton in traditionally Democratic states like New York, we may see a real and historic landslide in November. And, even if he fails to win in Nebraska, it is clear there is a sense that is the only candidate who brings new life and the possibility of growth to the Democratic party through exciting candidates like Kleeb and Esch.
Every time the Clinton campaign arrogantly dismisses states like these as "insignificant" or calls our elected delegates "second-class," they are reinforcing the very real limits on a Hillary nomination. Even if she were to win, there will be no coattails. There will be no growth of the party. There will be no Esches and Kleebs...
UPDATE: Another important point to keep in mind is that Nebraska is one of the few states that allots its electoral college votes proportionally. So, Obama could lose Nebraska, overall, but pick up one or two electoral college votes! Many feel like this is a real possibility in '08...