We've managed to put Musharraf in a rather awkward place - pressing him to support our 'War on Terror' - even as many of his own populace (and supporters) are less than happy with this. Ignoring the duplicity of Pakistan's past actions working AGAINST U.S. interests, we seem to be stuck with the 'allies we have, not the allies we want.'
However, as awkward as Musharraf's current position is, it seems like the US may be about to make it MUCH more awkward.
Pakistan and India have been - to put it politely - 'rivals' since the British granted independence. The US seems to be astoundingly oblivious as to how bad the feelings are between these nations.....we're about to make it worse.
A report in the Daily Standard - quoted with some approval at Redstate.com - has the US GIVING the Indian government the about to be decommissioned Kitty Hawk - as long as the Indian government buys 65 F/A-18's to operate off it.....
Is Pakistan going to like this? more......
Now, it does benefit the US in a global sort of way if we can take some business away from the Russians and get India more dependent on US arms... hey, if they're gonna buy weapons, why NOT have them buy US ones, right?
And it seems like the Indian government got sold a real pig in a poke......
In 2004 Russia and India signed a deal to provide the Indian Navy with an aircraft carrier and a navalized version of the MiG-29, designated the MiG-29K, in order to give New Delhi the power projection capability in the Indian Ocean that it had sought for some time.
On the face of it this seemed like the perfect deal for both sides. India was to be given an older-generation aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, for free, but would have to pay $700 million for a refit of the vessel, plus they would have to purchase the MiG-29Ks and eight naval helicopters for another $800 million. India was also offered options to purchase an additional 30 MiG-29Ks and upgrades to Indian port facilities in order to dock and service the Gorshkov for a total of another $1.5 billion. But, the program has proven to be overly ambitious and has run into a number of snags that threaten to derail a decades-long symbiotic relationship.
When the Russian state arms export agency Rosoboronexport (ROE) made the carrier deal, the vessel was scheduled to be delivered to the Indian Navy in 2008. ROE must not have known what they were getting themselves into and as of last summer the bad news for the Indians could no longer be kept secret. As reported by Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts, "the money [$1.5 billion] was allocated, but the work was never done."
Another Russian military commentator, Pavel Felgenhauer, stated the situation more bluntly in one of his columns on the carrier entitled
"Sold: The $1.5 Billion Lemon"
It seems like the 'retrofit is well behind schedule and the Russians are asking the Indians for more money to complete the job......
http://sify.com/...
India is reconciled to paying at least a part of the additional $1.2 billion that Russia is demanding for an aircraft carrier the Indian Navy has purchased for $1.5 billion.
......."We will have to arrive at a mutually agreed price. It's hard to say at this stage exactly how much more we will have to pay," the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the subject.
After protracted negotiations, India had in 2004 agreed to purchase the Admiral Gorshkov, now renamed INS Vikramaditya. If the contracted amount, approximately $974 million was to be spent on upgrading and refitting the ship, which has been mothballed since a devastating fire in 1994.
The remaining $526 million was meant for the 16 MiG-29 jets and six Kamov Ka-31 attack and reconnaissance anti-submarine helicopters that will be deployed on the vessel.
Last year, the Russians arbitrarily raised the price by $1.2 billion, saying the work involved in refurbishment had been grossly underestimated and much more would require to be done before the ship was made seaworthy.
later reports talk of the deal being 'on the rocks'
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/...
Talks between India and Russia over the pricing of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier have broken down with Moscow threatening to cancel the deal, Indian sources have said.
The deal worth $1.5 billion was inked in 2004, but Moscow is now demanding an additional $1.2 billion for retrofitting. The Russians said they were offering 45,000 tonnes of ship to India free of cost and the amount was only meant for retrofitting, modernisation, and as payment for a squadron of MIG-29 fighter jets.
................ It is believed that Defence Secretary Vijay Singh, who was in Moscow to discuss the price dispute, has returned with no assurance. He also carried out physical verification of the retrofitting work. Russians say they need more money to carry out complex cabling and refitting in the ship.
Indian Naval chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta in October ruled out any renegotiation on price. Sources here said he had even advised the government not to re-open the deal and admitted the Groshkov rechristened as INS Vikramaditya would not be able to join the Navy in 2008 as per the original schedule. The ship would now join the Indian Navy in 2011 and "as far as we are concerned the ship is ours," he said.
So... in the ABSTRACT - absent any OTHER concerns, this seems like a great opportunity for the US to expand its influence.
But how is Pakistan going to feel about this? Aren't we putting our close 'ally' in a bit of a bind, selling up to date modern weapons to their enemy?
Keep in mind that Pakistan and India have been in a 'hot' - if undeclared - conflict on and off for some time now....
As reported in the Daily Standard:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...
Enter the United States. According to numerous sources inside India, when U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visits New Delhi late in February (provided his Tuesday Potomac Primary Day broken shoulder does not alter his itinerary) he will be carrying a signed letter from U.S. President George W. Bush offering a better deal for India than the one they have been struggling to get out of Moscow for four years now. The Indian Navy will reportedly be offered the soon-to-be decommissioned USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) aircraft carrier for free--provided the Indian Navy will agree to purchase 65 of the newest model Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to be operated off of it.
If true--and if New Delhi accepts--this can do more than just sink the Russian carrier deal and the MiG-29K contract. The Indian Air Force (IAF) are deep in the throes of a tender to purchase almost 200 new fighter aircraft, with Boeing and RSK-MiG both in the field of six contenders. An order of 200 fighter airplanes is unheard of--larger than any such export sale in more than 20 years. In an era where sales of 12, 20, or 40 fighters are more common, this is the PowerBall Lotto of export competitions.
Now I bet certain US contractors are salivating over the prospect of this deal but.........
Is this REALLY a good idea?
Maybe, just MAYBE, it might be far better for the region if both India and Pakistan had LESS military capabilities than they currently possess..... less ability to wage war migh decrease the odds ofit occurring. Or is that irrational logic? After all, how many places can the Indian government go to for an aircraft carrier and the associated aircraft for it?
Or is the logic behind this COUNTING on an escalation?
India buys a bunch of planes to go with their 'new' carrier, so Pakistan has to 'balance' out India's increase......
whoo- hooo.... even MORE planes to get built!!!!!
But what about the politics of this all?
Aren't we undermining Musharraf even more with this move? Yeah, like he's been SUCH a great ally, but W's bet the farm - or at least the north 40 - on him......
Aren't we angering the Pakistani populace by GIVING/selling arms to their mortal enemy India?
Can we afford to hurt our relationship with Pakistan - considering we depend on them SO much in our 'war on terror?'
Oh... and of course there would be a certain amount of technology transfer and subcontracted production as part of the deal...... so it's not all roses for US workers....
or
Is the whole 'war on terror' meme so much BS?
Is the REAL agenda all about the $$$$$$ gained by selling more planes and weapons systems - no matter how much more all this DESTABILIZES the region further?
Just wondering - because this really seems like a dumb move all around.....
Both India and Pakistan should be CUTTING BACK their military spending and focusing on REAL social needs....... the US should be thrilled at any chance to LESSEN the amount of arms and potential for escalation (bwahaaaaa........ yeah... who am I kidding?).......
and at the very least - we should be trying to give Musharraf some real 'street cred' justifying his support of the US (such as it is) instead of making him look like a doormat.....
of course this presumes that the 'war on terror' IS a real concern and that retaining Pakistan's support IS important.... but then maybe it is all so much BS....
but that's just my take......