I doubt anyone would accuse me of going out on a limb with my predictions but I honestly believe that there will be two very different but equally true story lines exiting March fourth. And none of them are decisive enough to finish this race as soon as we all would like. In full disclosure I am an Obama supporter so my opinion of who I predict wins the night is slanted in that direction.
Obama will win the nights pledged delegates by margins similar to those of the last eleven wins. So far as pledged delegates are concerned Hillary will lose and lose badly and this will be because of the Texas pima-caucus and a double digit win for Obama in Vermont. The Texas delegate apportionments will also play into Obama’s favour because of strong past Democratic turnout in Obama favourable districts. I’m not prepared to predict that Obama will win the popular vote in Texas but if he doesn’t it will be close, the largest margin of victory in either direction I predict will be 52-48. Ohio will belong to Hillary with a minimum victory of 50-49 and maximum 54-45. They will split the Ohio delegates even with Hillary leading by one or two delegates at most if she is very lucky. Rhode Island will be won by Hillary also but the margin will only net her a one or two delegates. Basically we will see the same storyline as before where Obama wins he wins big and always nets more delegates by large Margins. Where Hillary wins it is close and the delegates either get split evenly or because of congressional districts go to Obama by a small margin despite a loss in popular votes.
The storylines for Tuesday will be this. Obama will as I stated take the delegate lead of the night but Hillary will take a small popular vote lead. She will portray this as decisive win for her campaign and portray it as "THE" reason why Super Delegates should now support her. Because after Tuesday it will be impossible for her to ever take a pledged delegate lead. Obama will continue much the same way he has and portray Tuesday as yet another pledged delegate win for him and more reasons for Super Delegates to join his campaign and I believe many will. So far as the popular vote is concerned Obama is winning that nationwide right now even if we include Michigan and Florida and that lead will tighten after Tuesday but will not be overcome by Hillary.
Story one will be Obama will always have and maintain delegate leads and more overwhelming wins when he wins. Story two, Hillary will typically win popular votes in larger states but rarely if by overwhelming margins. This leads me to the belief that Obama can’t win big states is foolish because he is in reality equal to Hillary in large states. However Hillary is weak in small states and Red states and this will be a trend that will continue into the General Election. Obama has the ability to turn Red states Blue and Hillary has the ability to maintain a strong democratic base. March fourth will prove what we have all known. Obama is the standard bearer of the Fifty State Strategy while Hillary represents the Fifty plus One strategy or as I prefer to call it Forty Nine plus Enough.
When all is said and done the direction of America will not be of concern if it is either Hillary or Obama who wins the Nomination followed by the General Election. Both will take America in a similar direction. What is of concern is the direction of the Democratic Party. This primary isn’t about Obama versus Hillary, it’s about Dr. Howard Dean and his ilk versus the DLC and theirs. Who are the rightful heirs to the party? This is what is at stake this election year. The media has completely missed the point in focusing on this race as a battle of which candidate has the superficial edge among voters. So no matter what candidate you support ask yourself if it is them or the direction of the party that truly matters. And if it is the latter then make your choice wisely because if as I believe the Democrats win the election in November America will be fine. But will the Democratic Party be so lucky?